The Houston Astros (36-21) host the Miami Marlins (25-30) Friday for the 1st of their 3-game interleague series at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Miami is 6-4 straight up (SU) over the last 10 games, which includes a 3-game sweep of the Washington Nationals Tuesday-Thursday.
Houston is 7-3 SU in the last 10 but lost the rubber match of a 3-game home series with the Seattle Mariners 6-3 Wednesday.
Marlins at Astros projected starters
RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Luis Garcia
Lopez is 4-2 with a 2.18 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 66 IP over 11 starts.
Garcia is 3-4 with a 3.07 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 55 2/3 IP over 10 starts.
Last start: Loss, 6-0, Saturday at the Kansas City Royals with 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 2 K. This is Garcia’s 1st career start vs. the Marlins.Marlins at Astros odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Money line (ML): Marlins +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Astros -160 (bet $160 to win $100) Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-170) | Astros -1.5 (+135) Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!
Marlins at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 4, Astros 3
Money line
BET the MARLINS (+130).
This is a suspiciously low number considering Houston’s record, and more than 80% of the cash is on the Astros (-160), according to Pregame.com.
But, the line hasn’t budged, and this line freeze suggests the House is daring the public to take a bigger position on Houston.
Also, Miami has the starting pitching edge Friday. Lopez had a subpar start in his last outing, by his standard, and should bounce back vs. the Astros.
He grades in the 80th percentile in hard-hit rate, chase rate and whiff rate, per Statcast, and Lopez has just a 1.41 road ERA over 5 starts this year.
Lastly, the Marlins are better than their record indicates. Miami has an MLB-leading minus-5 luck factor, which means the Marlins should have 5 more wins based on run differential.
BET 0.75 units on the MARLINS (+130).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Miami is 14-5 RL as road underdogs, but the Marlins +1.5 (-170) is a little out of my price range. Garcia is having a solid year himself, and the Astros -1.5 (+135) are a top-3 team in the American League.
PASS.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-108).
Miami is 11-15 O/U on the road, and Houston is 7-16 O/U at home, Marlins-Astros are a combined 7-14 O/U when these two starters get the nod, Minute Maid Park is 26th in park factor (aka very pitcher-friendly), and sharp action has steamed this total down from an 8-run opener, per Pregame.com.
However, since we are getting late to the party on the total, and this number is sharp, there isn’t much value left in the UNDER 7.5 (-108).
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