There are always whispers and rumblings, and Trail Blazers guard CJ McCollum is aware of them. In the two years before this one, Portland has carved out an identity as a pretty good offensive team and a so-so defensive team, and the results have been predictable. The Trail Blazers won 41 games last year on their way to a postseason spot, and 44 games in 2015-16, when they slipped into the second round of the playoffs by knocking off an injury-battered Clippers team.
That’s led to speculation that Portland, over the salary cap and sitting on two years of hefty contracts for Evan Turner, Meyers Leonard and Maurice Harkless ($39 million for the trio next year, and $41 million in 2019-20), would eventually have to deal either McCollum or fellow star guard Damian Lillard in order to diversify the roster.
The pair is signed through 2021, slated to make $50-60 million per year combined. It’s not easy to build a true contender with half the available cap space spent on guards, but it’s where the Blazers are now.
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But McCollum is not so sure we’ve seen the best from this Portland bunch.
"Everyone has a right to their own opinion," McCollum told Sporting News. "I think that we live in an era where the art of the unknown scares people. But I think, consistently, we have won. Obviously, we haven’t won a championship, but we have made the playoffs four straight years in the Western Conference. We made it to the second round — this is only our third full season playing together."
It’s only the first full season together for the Blazer backcourt alongside center Jusuf Nurkic, acquired last February in a trade from Denver. Before Portland determines what to do with the Lillard-McCollum combination — any change that big will come much later — it must decide on the fate of Nurkic, a restricted free agent this summer. Without another roster move, the Blazers will be only about $10 million under the luxury tax, making Nurkic a difficult signing.
Yet Portland is in position for one of its best finishes in years, which makes the next few weeks crucial. This has been a franchise struggling to establish its identity since LaMarcus Aldridge left in the summer of 2015, and the close of this season offers a good opportunity for the Blazers to raise themselves in the mix of West teams, and perhaps solidify the status of the Nurkic-McCollum-Lillard trio as the team’s foundation.
Since ending a three-game losing streak in mid-January, Portland has gone 13-5, the fourth-best record in the league in that stretch. That’s brought the Blazers within a 1.5 games of the third seed in the West, going into Thursday’s game against the Timberwolves — the current holder of the third seed, but facing an extended stretch without star guard Jimmy Butler. Portland has some tough foes in the next 12 games, but 10 of those come at home.
"We understand what is at stake for the second half of the season," McCollum said. "We understand how good a lot of different teams are in the West. A lot of games will be crucial."
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In making the playoffs the last two seasons, the Blazers have followed a frustrating pattern. They’ve gotten off to terribly slow starts and needed to barnstorm their way into the postseason with strong finishes. Typically, that has meant accelerating their offense and dragging their defense from poor to average.
Last season, they finished 17-6 to make up for a 24-35 start. Their offense went from 106.5 points per 100 possessions (13th) to 111.3, and their defense improved from 26th to 10th over the last 23 games, thanks in large part to the acquisition of Nurkic.
Two years ago, it was much the same. Portland was 15-24 in early January, with an offense rated 12th (102.9 points per 100 possessions) and a defense rated 25th (105.5). The Blazers closed 29-14, with the offense jumping to fifth (109.0) in that span, though the defense didn't see much improvement (105.7).
This year, even during the team’s early struggles, Portland never fell below .500. If they’re accelerating into the kind of stretch finish they’ve had the last two years, then, the Blazers are within range of reaching 50 wins for just the 14th time in franchise history. (Currently, they’re on pace for 47.) In their last 18 games, the Blazers have been eighth in offensive efficiency (109.5) and 11th in defense (105.3).
Lillard has been much more efficient in that stretch, upping his scoring from 24.8 points to 29.3 per game and shooting 40.8 percent from the 3-point line (34.7 percent in the first 43 games). Nurkic has been more effective, boosting his shooting (from 46.4 percent to 52.8) and rebounding (from 7.9 to 9.3) in the last 19 games. McCollum, as usual, has been steady, staying above 40 percent on 3-pointers and averaging better than 21 points per game.
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That’s the Blazers’ best trio, the closest they’ve got to a "Big Three." There’s hope in the potential of rookie big man Zach Collins, who could change the roster’s dynamics as he develops. But the foundation could, eventually, need to be broken up, either by splitting the backcourt, letting Nurkic walk this summer or both.
Much will depend on how Portland handles the coming six weeks. The Trail Blazers are in a much better stretch-run position than they’ve been in any season of the McCollum-Lillard pairing, with a No. 3 seed and 50 wins within reach. A strong finish and a good playoff run would make it more likely that the organization pays up for Nurkic and commits to the core.