It is an all-seeded lineup in the top half of the Dubai draw heading into quarterfinal competition on Thursday. No. 1 Daniil Medvedev is going up against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, while Hubert Hurkacz faces Ugo Humbert.
(3) Hubert Hurkacz vs. (5) Ugo Humbert
It should be a high-quality showdown with very few–if any–service breaks when Hurkacz and Humbert collide in the quarterfinals of the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships on Thursday. Both players are in stellar form and thrive in quick conditions such as those in Dubai, so this has all the makings of a competitive contest. Humbert just erased Hurkacz 6-4, 6-4 earlier this month in Marseille, but the courts were painfully slow there; a repeat of that result is unlikely at best. Despite that setback, Hurkacz still leads the head-to-head series 3-1–which includes a 3-6, 6-1, 7-6(4), 6-3 victory at this year’s Australian Open.
Unsurprisingly, Hurkacz has been a tiebreaker machine so far in Dubai. The eighth-ranked Pole’s streak of tiebreaker sets extended to nine when he beat Jan-Lennard Struff 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 7-6(6) and took the first set from Christopher O’Connell 7-6(5). It finally came to an end with a 6-4 second-set success against the Aussie on Wednesday. Humbert avenged a Doha loss to fellow Frenchman Gael Monfils before knocking off Andy Murray 6-2, 6-4 in the second round. Obviously this match is a borderline toss-up with the margins likely to be so small, but Hurkacz is 3-0 in tiebreakers all time against Humbert and that could be the difference.
Pick: Hurkacz in 3
(1) Daniil Medvedev vs. (8) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Medvedev and Davidovich Fokina will be squaring off for the fourth time in their careers on Thursday. All three of their previous encounters have gone the way of Medvedev, who prevailed twice in 2023 (4-6, 6-2, 6-2 in Rotterdam and 6-3, 7-5 at the Indian Wells Masters).
Since taking a few weeks off after finishing runner-up to Jannik Sinner at Melbourne Park, early returns on Medvedev’s form are mostly encouraging. So far this week the third-ranked Russian has defeated Alexander Shevchenko and Lorenzo Sonego while dropping a set to Sonego in the process. With two matches under his belt, Medvedev–who is the defending champion in Dubai–should only improve. That would be bad news for Davidovich Fokina, who required three sets against Fabian Marozsan and then got a retirement from Doha runner-up Jakub Mensik while leading 7-6(7), 1-0. Medvedev owns this matchup and there is no reason to think anything will change at a tournament he loves.
Pick: Medvedev in 2