MMAjunkie Radio cohost and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC 221’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event.
UFC 221 takes place Sunday (but airs live in North America on Saturday due to the time difference) at Perth Arena in Perth, Western Australia, and the main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on FS1 and UFC Fight Pass.
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Yoel Romero (12-2 MMA, 8-1 UFC)
Yoel Romero
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 40 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 73″
- Last fight: Decision loss to Robert Whittaker (July 8, 2017)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Olympic silver medalist (wrestling)
+ Multiple wrestling accolades
+ 10 KO victories
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Incredibly athletic and agile
^ Closes distance quickly
+ Deceptive tempo changes
+ Variates attack levels
^ Dangerous flying knees
+ Superb wrestling ability
^ Defensive and offensive
+ Difficult to control in transit
^ Springs and scrambles to safety
– Inconsistent output and pace
^ Gas tank bears watching
+/- 2-0 against fellow UFC southpaws
Luke Rockhold (16-3 MMA, 6-2 UFC)
Luke Rockhold
Staple info:
- Height: 6’3″ Age: 33 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 77″
- Last fight: TKO win over David Branch (Sept. 16, 2017)
- Camp: Hard Knocks 365 (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC middleweight champion
+ Strikeforce middleweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 6 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Good distance management
+ Accurate check-hook
+ Diverse and dangerous kicking acumen
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Underrated wrestling ability
+ Works well from front headlock
+ Superb transitional grappler
^ Floats, rides, advances to back
+ Effective ground striker
+/- 1-1 against fellow UFC southpaws
Summary:
The main event in Perth features an interim middleweight title fight between Yoel Romero and Luke Rockhold.
Amid the theme of musical chairs that has parodied the middleweight division, its champion – Robert Whittaker – was forced to withdraw from his scheduled bout with Rockhold due to myriad injuries. Stepping in to fill the slot is Romero, a top contender who is coming off of a failed bid for this very title.
Starting off on the feet, we have a unique pairing of two southpaw strikers.
As I often preach in my breakdowns, a matchup of lefties can be tricky, especially considering that most southpaws predicate their games on facing an opponent of the opposite stance. For this reason, the more “skilled” striker does not always demonstrate his perceived on-paper advantages.
In this case, both men will likely enjoy the extra offensive avenues at their disposal, but I’ll be more curious to see how their defenses hold up.
At long range, Rockhold should possess the more advantageous arsenal.
Whether we are talking about Rockhold’s high kick, liver kick or question-mark kick, the California native maintains a solid outer layer to his repertoire. Coupled with the counter crosses and check-hooks he keeps at the ready, and Rockhold packs all the weapons that a southpaw arguably should have.
Using every inch of his long frame, Rockhold is typically the one dictating the striking range in his fights. Prodding with jabs and moving well behind powerful kicks, Rockhold will chip away at his opposition until creating openings for his opportunism to shine.
After Rockhold spent his past two training camps in South Florida under the care of Henri Hooft, I will be interested to see if he makes any changes to his approach considering who he is facing.
One of the more intimidating characters in any division, Romero not only carries the physique of a superhero, but he can move like one too. Utilizing springboard-like aerial assaults to misdirect his opponent’s attention, Romero will explode immediately upon touchdown, and he is one of the most deceptive distance closers in the game.
Using changes in tempo to lure his opposition into a false sense of security, Romero can quickly change pace at the drop of a dime, which is probably why most of his opponents are more gun-shy when facing him.
Much more crafty than he leads on to be, Romero will often get in on a takedown, only to abandon ship at the last second. Typically, this will shake up an opponent’s defensive radar, making the takedown a real threat and focus.
As soon as Romero gets his opponents dropping their level in anticipation for a shot, the Cuban will then fake low and explode upward with flying knees.
Although his athleticism and agility allow him to conduct himself like a video-game character, Romero makes his money like most southpaws as he packs a powerful left cross and right hook. For that reason, Rockhold will need to be wary anytime Romero is allowed to plant inside of the pocket.
Regardless of how striking stanzas playout, I suspect that this battle will get even more intriguing anytime these two lock up.
Despite Romero having the clear wrestling edge on paper, things can quickly get tricky when tangling with Rockhold.
An underrated wrestler, Rockhold’s layered counter grappling could stifle the point-scoring takedown attempts of his Cuban counterpart. Fully utilizing his long, athletic frame, Rockhold demonstrates a solid sense of hips, levers and how to use them in his favor.
If the Olympian shows difficulty in dealing with the frame of Rockhold in close, we may seem him try to shoot from afar. The problem with that, however, is that any failed shot will likely result in a front-headlock style of scenario – a position from which Rockhold transitions exceptionally.
Floating smoothly on top while displaying the limb dexterity of a featherweight, Rockhold starts to resemble a giant squid engulfing a ship by the time he hits the mount position. Should Romero fail to scramble his way to safety by that point, then his usual methods to stall progression probably won’t be enough.
Still, Romero was able to survive on the ground with the likes of Ronaldo Souza and has proven time again that his power can translate to the floor – something he could emphatically remind us of here if he ends up on top.
The oddsmakers and public seem to be steadily forming their opinions, listing Rockhold -140 and Romero +130 as of this writing.
Given that this is a matchup between two high-level opportunists, it’s hard to disagree with a close line leaning either way. And though I initially leaned toward Romero to find his leaping right hook for the finish, I ultimately ended up siding with Rockhold because I believe that he offers more outcomes offensively while giving up less defensively.
Romero’s unpredictability is what makes his game come to life, but his wildness often costs him energy and allows him to get into precarious positions. If Romero ends up on the wrong side of a scramble with Rockhold, then we may see a shift in this fight’s momentum. The pick is Rockhold to survive the storm and secure a finish from the mount come Round 4.
Official pick: Rockhold inside the distance
For more on UFC 221, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.