No. 11 Oregon (9-2, 6-2 Pac-12) vs. Oregon State (7-4, 5-3 Pac-12)
Time: 12:30 p.m. PT
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene
Coaches: Mario Cristobal, fourth year (34-12 at Oregon, 61-59 overall); Jonathan Smith, fourth year (14-26)
Latest line: Oregon by 6.5
TV Channel: ESPN
On air: Radio on 1080 “The Fan” in Portland, KUGN-AM 590 in Eugene, KEX (1190), KPOJ (620)
How to watch live online: You can watch this game live for FREE with fuboTV (free trial). You can also get this game on Sling TV (promotional offers) if you are out of fuboTV trials, or simply prefer that platform and their pricing plans. You can also watch the game live on Watch ESPN with your cable or satellite provider login information.
What’s at stake: If Washington wins the Apple Cup, this will become winner-take-all for the Pac-12 North division title and spot in the Pac-12 Championship game. Oregon is vying for its third straight trip to the conference title game. If not eliminated by Washington State, Oregon State will be attempting to make it to the conference championship game for the first time and be the tenth team to compete in the game since it began in 2011. Even if Washington State wins and makes this purely for bragging rights for Oregon State, the Beavers haven’t won back-to-back editions of the rivalry since 2006-07.
Oregon offense vs. Oregon State defense
Last week notwithstanding, Oregon’s running game has carried it all season and it’ll have to if the Ducks are going to be successful on Saturday. Travis Dye had one of the best games of his career against Oregon State in 2018 and Oregon needs him to be the focal point again given how the passing game is still in the wake of losing three of the top four receivers in a week.
The Beavers are coming off one of their best performances stopping the run this season, particularly given the caliber of competition. Though OSU is vulnerable to deep throws, UO has not stretched the field with any consistency this season. Even against Arizona and UCLA, the only Pac-12 teams to allow more passes of 40-plus yards than Oregon State, Oregon had just one such play and it was to Jaylon Redd on a slant.
Oregon defense vs. Oregon State offense
UO’s Achilles heel is OSU’s strength: running out of multiple tight end sets. The Ducks showed real progress against the run against UCLA, then dominated Washington on the line of scrimmage but were on the losing end constantly against Utah. There is no way to suggest B.J. Baylor and the Beavers don’t have a considerable advantage on paper entering this game.
If OSU can enhance what it already does well by taking some of what Utah showed last week, from the simple idea of running away from Kayvon Thibodeaux to its blocking schemes on the edges, it could be a long day for Oregon. If the Ducks are able to get the Beavers behind the chains and let Thibodeaux and its other edge rushers become bigger factors, OSU will have a much harder time scoring.
Did you know?
- Oregon has lost yards on just 7.9% of its plays, fifth-lowest rate in the FBS and the best in the Pac-12.
Matchup to watch: Oregon’s edge defenders vs. Oregon State’s tackles and tight ends
If Oregon is able to set the edge it’ll at least be able to slow down Oregon State’s running attack and be able to turn its pass rusher loose on third down. But if Joshua Gray, Brandon Kipper, Teagan Quitoriano and Luke Musgrave are able to win the line of scrimmage, particularly to the field side of the defense, the Beavers should be able to keep the chains moving and control the game.
They said it:
“It’s not just another game, I think we all know that. There are several players on our team that were there last year. It’s in the right spot mentally.” - Mario Cristobal
Key stat:
- Oregon State is 7-2 when rushing for 200-plus yards. Oregon is 1-1 when allowing 200-plus yards this season and 3-6 when doing so under Mario Cristobal.
The last time these teams met:
One year ago to the day on a foggy night in Corvallis, Oregon State delivered a shocking 41-38 upset thanks in no small part to Oregon’s three turnovers. The Ducks built a 24-13 halftime lead and were up 31-19 with 6:31 to go in the third. The Beavers responded with a 16-play, 92-yard drive, interception, and another touchdown to take the lead. Oregon regained the lead 38-34 with 8:27 to go and appeared to be in control after a red zone stop, but went three-and-out on offense and OSU drove 53 yards in 1:22 with Chance Nolan scoring the game-winning one-yard touchdown on fourth-and-goal.
Prediction: Oregon State 28, Oregon 24
Pregame reading:
Oregon Ducks linebacker corps gets needed boost with return of Jackson LaDuke
Oregon State hopeful Avery Roberts, Pac-12′s leading tackler, can play against Oregon
Seven McGee moves primarily to slot receiver for Oregon Ducks
Oregon State coaches wearing out grease pens finding creative ways to use versatile Jack Colletto
Travis Dye probably won’t take part in Oregon’s Senior Day ceremony, Ducks RB’s decision on 2022 ‘still to come’
Oregon Ducks TE/DE DJ Johnson ‘improving,’ ILB Keith Brown out vs. Oregon State
Oregon State coach Jonathan Smith rooting for Washington, Avery Roberts uncertain for Ducks
Injuries prompt Oregon Ducks to lean on freshman receivers for significant contributions
Oregon QB Anthony Brown Jr.: ‘Everything’s good’ between him and Ducks receivers