Great American Ball Park showcases a National League contest on Thursday afternoon. The Cincinnati Reds welcome the Arizona Diamondbacks to town to wrap up a four-game series. The Reds hold a 2-1 edge in the series, though Arizona won the most recent tilt on Wednesday. The Diamondbacks improved to 27-31 with Wednesday's victory, with the Reds falling to 20-36 this season.
Caesars Sportsbook lists Cincinnati as a -135 favorite (risk $135 to win $100) on the money line for this 12:35 p.m. ET first pitch. The total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 9.5 in the latest Reds vs. Diamondbacks odds. Before making any Diamondbacks vs. Reds picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and it is off to a strong start to the 2022 season. It's on a 52-37 roll on top-rated MLB money-line picks through nine weeks, returning over $800 for $100 players. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Diamondbacks vs. Reds, and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Reds vs. Diamondbacks:
- Diamondbacks vs. Reds money line: Reds -135, Diamondbacks +115
- Diamondbacks vs. Reds over-under: 9.5 runs
- Diamondbacks vs. Reds run line: Reds -1.5 (+145)
- Diamondbacks vs. Reds tickets: See tickets at StubHub
- ARI: The Diamondbacks are 10-17 in day games
- CIN: The Reds are 10-13 in day games
Why you should back the Diamondbacks
Arizona ranks strongly above the National League average in both home runs and walks this season, with Cincinnati's ballpark providing a potential advantage for a team with power. The Diamondbacks are also facing a Reds team with some pitching issues. Cincinnati starter Tyler Mahle has a 5.60 ERA at home and a 5.43 ERA overall this season, and the Reds are near the bottom of the National League in both ERA and wins above replacement from their bullpen.
For Arizona, Zach Davies tossed 7.2 innings of shutout baseball in his last outing, and he has a 3.81 ERA on the road in 2022. Cincinnati also ranks in the bottom tier of the NL in hits, walks, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage this season.
Why you should back the Reds
Cincinnati has been a different team since the calendar flipped away from April. Entering Wednesday, the Reds had an above-average offense since May 1, winning more than they lose as a result. Cincinnati's .258/.329/.426 slash line is encouragingly strong, and the Reds have vastly improved underlying metrics on offense over the last six weeks.
When it comes to run prevention, the Reds are also in strong shape on Thursday, facing a Diamondbacks team that is in the bottom five of the National League in runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, strikeouts, and stolen bases. Mahle has a career 3.00 ERA against Arizona, and he also has a 2.13 ERA in his last two starts this season. Mahle can generate swings and misses, as evidenced by 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings over the last three seasons, and Cincinnati has home-field advantage.
How to make Diamondbacks vs. Reds picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 11 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Diamondbacks vs. Reds? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Diamondbacks vs. Reds you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.