NFL Futures odds: Zach Wilson is the favorite to throw most interceptions

Zach Wilson may be a long shot to start the season on the Jets’ active roster, but he’s the betting favorite to lead the league in a dubious honor.

Last year’s No. 2 pick, who showed flashes amid an uneven rookie season, is tied for the shortest betting odds at BetMGM (+800) to lead the NFL in interceptions in 2022. He’s priced alongside Texans quarterback Davis Mills (+800) as the co-favorite, while fellow sophomores Justin Fields (+900) and Trevor Lawrence (+1000) – who led the league in interceptions (17) in his first year – round out the top four in this unenviable field.

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NFL Futures: Odds to lead NFL in interceptions (BetMGM)

Will Zach Wilson lead NFL in interceptions in 2022?

Wilson may seem like a peculiar candidate to pace this market after throwing just 11 interceptions a year ago, which ranked 17th among all passers. A closer look at his profile suggests that the number could have been much higher.

As a rookie, the Jets quarterback ranked dead last among qualified passers in completion percentage (55.6%), and he ranked 32nd among 33 signal-callers in QBR (28.2). While his season total of 11 interceptions ranked outside of the top 15, he ranked 28th in passing attempts (383) – fewer than two-thirds of the total attempts from INT leaders Lawrence (602) and Matthew Stafford (601).

In his 13 starts last year, Wilson owned the NFL’s seventh-highest interception rate (2.9%) – higher than Lawrence or Stafford – and ranked 10th in interceptions per game (0.85). That includes a four-INT effort in Week 2 against the Patriots, joining eight other quarterbacks to throw four picks in a game in 2021.

There are silver linings to Wilson’s rocky first season, though. Seven of his 11 interceptions came in his first three starts, and he didn’t throw a pick in any of his final five starts. He also led all qualified starters in drop rate (12.7%), with a staggering 31 passes bouncing off his receivers’ hands.

That high drop rate means one of two things: he didn’t get a lot of help from his receivers, or he didn’t help them enough with precise ball placement. Given Wilson’s NFL-worst completion rate, it’s probably a combination of both, though adding top-10 pick Garrett Wilson and tight end C.J. Uzomah to a group that already features emerging wideouts Elijah Moore and Corey Davis is a boon for the sophomore QB.

There’s also the practical reality that, once again, Wilson seems highly unlikely to play a full 17-game slate. He’s already uncertain to play Week 1 after suffering a torn meniscus and bone bruise in last week’s preseason win, and the Jets have made it clear they won’t rush their potential franchise QB back onto the field.

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Sure, an injured Wilson may be more susceptible to an ill-placed ball, but he’d have to be pretty rotten to pace the field in interceptions in a limited sample. Of the eight quarterbacks to throw at least 14 picks in 2021, all of them played in at least 16 games, and six of them made a full 17 starts.

So don’t put too much stock into Wilson’s embarrassing honor as the favorite in this field. He’s still an unlikely bet to post an NFL-worst mark in interceptions – even if his potential absence is his best defense.