Anyone who projected that putting together a long-term deal approaching $200 million, ensuring that Daniel Jones is the franchise quarterback for the Giants, would be a quick-and-easy negotiation leading to a swift signing has never been anywhere remotely close to these sort of high-end contract talks.
Almost always, there is an initial financial chasm. Sometimes, there is acrimony that bubbles to the surface. Sometimes, there are hurt feelings, especially in the initial phase of the back-and-forth numbers exchanges. Sometimes, a player feels the need to change his representation to spark the discussion. Jones did that this week, when he signed with prestigious Athletes First and dropped equally prestigious Creative Artists Agency.
This is interesting although hardly unprecedented.
Did anyone think Jones would accept the first offer? Did anyone not anticipate Jones’ camp seeking a fortune that most everyone, other than those in Jones’ inner circle, would deem to be excessive? Go low (Giants), shoot high (Jones) and usually, eventually meeting somewhere near the middle is the customary denouement.
The real intrigue comes when other teams get involved and a bidding war develops. The Giants can make sure that never happens, starting Tuesday, the first day NFL teams can apply the franchise or transition tag on players. From now until March 7, the Giants can slap the tag on Jones, keeping him off the open market (teams on March 13 can start negotiating with unrestricted free agents) for the quarterback price of $32.4 million. That means there is a full two weeks before the Giants have any decision to make. If they wish, the sides can get together in person in Indianapolis in late February and the first week in March at the NFL Scouting Combine, often an event where deals get done.
If the Giants use the exclusive franchise tag, Jones cannot talk with any other team. If the Giants opt for the non-exclusive tag, Jones can talk with any other team and if he comes to an agreement, that team must give the Giants two first-round draft picks. That scenario is highly unlikely.
The transition tag would cost $29.5 million and allow the Giants the right of first refusal. Jones would be free to negotiate with any other team but if the Giants matched the offer, Jones would stay with the Giants. Is it not in the best interest of the Giants to give another team the opportunity to negotiate a deal for a quarterback they want to keep.
The tag can be used as a placeholder while the two sides continue to talk. The downside for Jones is he is locked into that salary and has no security beyond this season. The downside for the Giants is as soon as the tag is applied, $32.4 million is deducted from their salary cap space, estimated at $44 million-$46 million, hampering their ability to spend in free agency and, possibly, limiting their ability to get a deal done with running back Saquon Barkley.
The Giants going into this hoped Jones was not going to initially seek a deal averaging $40 million per year, a place where only eight quarterbacks in the league currently reside. Would Jones be the first professional athlete to try to extract as much as possible from his team or to have an overly favorable opinion of his own worth when compared with others at his position?
The Giants would like to keep Jones’ deal in the Kirk Cousins vicinity — an average of $35 million per year — but it is believed Jones is thinking Dak Prescott territory ($40 million per year) or even the Kyler Murray stratosphere (average of $46 million annually). That could lead to the tag for Jones, at least for now.
Murray was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft. Jones was the next quarterback off the board, at No. 6. Murray in 57 games has thrown for 13,848 yards, 84 touchdowns and 41 interceptions for a passer rating of 92.5. Jones has not kept up with that production. In 54 games, he has thrown for 11,603 yards, 60 touchdowns and 34 interceptions for a passer rating of 86.5. The Giants are 21-31-1 in games Jones starts. The Cardinals are 25-31-1 in games Murray starts. Both players are exceptional runners, although Murray (2,204 career rushing yards) is more exceptional than Jones (1,708 rushing yards).
Based on what these players have on their résumés, Jones cannot hang with Murray. Three years into Murray’s career, his relationship with the Cardinals grew acrimonious as the sides tried to get a deal done. Murray did the trendy things — he scrubbed his social media of all things Cardinals — and there were terse words back and forth. These things happen. Eventually, Murray signed a monster deal — five years, $230.5 million, with $160 million in guaranteed money. The Giants will not go there with Jones.
There is an immediate problem with keeping Jones on the franchise tag. In 2022 — the first year of Murray’s contract extension — he counted only $12.6 million on the salary cap. That is where the Giants would like to be with Jones on the 2023 salary cap — not the $32.4 million the tag would drain off this year’s salary cap space.
The odds remain high that Jones and the Giants will come to an agreement. But these things take time.