The Los Angeles Dodgers (35-27) and the Cincinnati Reds (29-33) wrap up a 3-game series Thursday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Dodgers vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 2-0; Dodgers won season series 7-0 in 2022
The Dodgers have been outmuscled in The Queen City, losing 8-6 on Wednesday night and dropping the series opener 9-8 on Tuesday. Los Angeles has lost 5 of its last 6 road games.
The Reds have been on quite the roller coaster ride lately. Cincinnati won 5 in a row from May 26-31, it then dropped 4 in a row from last Thursday-Sunday, and now it has won 3 in a row coming into Thursday’s getaway day game.
Dodgers at Reds projected starters
LHP Clayton Kershaw vs. RHP Graham Ashcraft
Kershaw (7-4, 3.25 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 69 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H (2 solo HR), 1 BB, 9 K in an 8-4 home win vs. the New York Yankees Friday
- 2023 Road splits: 3-3, 4.70 ERA (38 1/3 IP, 20 ER – 7 HR) with 15 BB, 41 K and a .262 opponent batting average (OBA) in 7 starts
Ashcroft (3-4, 6.64 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 62 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 10 ER, 9 H, 4 BB, 2 K in a 10-8 home loss vs. the Milwaukee Brewers Saturday
- 2023 Home splits: 2-3, 8.49 ERA (29 2/3 IP, 28 ER – 6 HR) with a .300 OBA in 6 starts
Dodgers at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Dodgers -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Reds +185 (bet $100 to win $185)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -2.5 (+105) | Reds +2.5 (-125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Dodgers at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Dodgers 7, Reds 5
Moneyline
The Dodgers (-225) will cost you more than 2 times your potential return, and that’s worrisome on a couple of fronts.
First, Los Angeles has been outslugged in the first 2 games of this series. Second, the southpaw Kershaw has struggled on the road this season, posting a 4.70 ERA with 7 HR allowed in 38 1/3 IP, as opposed to a 1.45 ERA and just 3 HR allowed in 31 IP at Dodger Stadium.
Toss in the fact Kershaw could be distracted by some upcoming promotion night controversies involving the team, and his speaking up about it earlier this week, and he could have a lack of focus.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The REDS +2.5 (-125) are a strong play catching runs at home.
Cincinnati has been a heavy ‘dog at GABP in the first 2 games in this series and it won both outright. While Ashcroft has been an absolute disaster at home, the offense is playing with a lot of confidence right now.
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Over/Under
The OVER 10 (-110) is the lean, although double digits with a pitcher of Kershaw’s caliber on the mound is always a concern.
The Over has cashed in the first 2 games in this series and is 8-4 in the Reds’ past 12 games. The Over is 6-1 in the past 7 games for the Dodgers too, while cashing at a 13-3 clip in their past 16 overall.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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