As the old saying goes, it’s the hope that kills you. After a three-game losing streak, it felt like all that hope was lost for Wake Forest. Then, the win over Clemson to close the regular season pulled hope right back in.
Wake Forest is squarely on the bubble, and its exact standing on it has been heavily debated. Just today, I’ve seen reputable Bracketology groups placing the Deacs anywhere from “Last Four In” to “Next Four Out”. When that’s the case, it is highly unknown what it will take for Wake Forest to sneak into the NCAA Tournament. Is it two wins? Is it three? Will you have to win the whole ACC Tournament?
All you can do is take it one game at a time and hope things break your way. That first challenge falls against the team that was the beginning of Wake Forest’s post-Duke nosedive — Notre Dame. It’s a revenge game, plain and simple.
It’s March. The Deacs have hope. And, for all that talk about it killing you, hope also means you’re still alive.
Game Info
Teams: Wake Forest (19-12, 11-9 ACC) vs Notre Dame (13-19, 7-13 ACC)
Date: Wednesday March 13
Time: 2:30pm ET
Location: Capital One Arena; Washington, D.C.
Broadcast: ESPN; Dan Shulman and Jay Bilas
The Metrics
Wake Forest outranks the Irish in just about any metric category, including overall KenPom (26 to 121) and NET (38 to 126). Notre Dame is actually a very strong defensive team, ranking No. 33 in KP. It holds opponents to a 48.1 effective field-goal percentage, 61st in the NCAA. The Irish also limit offensive rebounds and opposing free-throw attempts. They don’t cause many turnovers, though.
The offense is a different story; it’s not very good, ranking No. 240 with low shooting metrics and bad turnover numbers. Steals and blocks are a common occurrence. The offense often works at a slow pace, nearly reaching the tempo of Virginia. A high percentage of the Irish’s points are coming from behind the arc.
Notre Dame is above average in bench minutes and has one of the lowest D1-experience rates in the country.
The Games
Q1: 1-9, Q2: 4-3, Q3: 4-5, Q4: 4-2
Best Win: 69-62 home victory over Clemson (Mar. 2)
Worst Loss: 65-45 home defeat to The Citadel (Dec. 19)
Last Time vs Wake
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25333083/USATSI_22639462.jpg)
This is one we all remember, right? Or maybe just one folks want to forget. Three days after one of the biggest wins in recent history, Wake Forest traveled to South Bend and fell apart against the Irish, shooting 26.7% in the second half. In the process, the Deacs blew a five-point halftime lead after being up by as much as nine in the second.
Notre Dame didn’t shoot well either, but Markus Burton pulverized Wake Forest to the tune of 31 points. 13 points off turnovers were also brutal. The Deacs’ star, Hunter Sallis, was held to just two buckets on 11 attempts, and the team’s three-point shooting never caught fire.
How ND Got Here
Notre Dame, the No. 12 seed in the ACC Tournament, defeated No. 13 Georgia Tech in the first round Tuesday behind a combined 44 points from Burton and Braeden Shrewsberry. The Irish were on fire in the first half, shooting 62% from the field and 54% from three. Burton had 15 points going into the locker room, and Notre Dame led by 10.
That advantage grew to as high as 17 with 12:59 to go in the second half. But, a possible coast to the finish line was not so. Georgia Tech scored 16 of 20 points in a three-and-a-half minute stretch shortly thereafter to close the deficit to within three. The Yellow Jackets then took the lead on a Naithan George jumper with 4:24 to go.
From the 2:24 mark until the final buzzer, though, Georgia Tech did not score another point. Notre Dame tightened up, went on a 5-0 run — largely from the free-throw line — and was able to gut out a 84-80 win.
What They’re Saying
“I’m really excited [to face Wake Forest]. They’re a really good team. I mean, we’ve beat them before, but they’re a March Madness team. It’s a great, great opportunity for us to face someone like them.” - Markus Burton
“[Wake Forest is] a talented team. They’re an explosive team. When you have three guards that can all score it, but you have two good big guys, they kind of put you in a bind a little bit. We’ve got to get back and start preparing and figure out what we need to do to have success against them. Playing a good team, I guess, is what frightens you, a talented team. But what excites me is we get a chance to play again tomorrow.” - Micah Shrewsberry
Players to Watch
Notre Dame
G Markus Burton
It simply has to be the ACC Freshman Player of the Year. Burton is a force offensively. He can do a little bit of everything — the three-pointers, the pull-up jumpers, drive to the hoop. And, considering he scored 31 on the Deacs just weeks ago, there’s no doubt eyes will be shifting primarily to him.
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25333091/AH1_2451.JPG)
The reality is, a lot of Notre Dame’s success is predicated on Burton’s. That first-half flurry against Georgia Tech largely ran through him, his 15 points and four assists. But, in the second, the Yellow Jackets found a way to shut him down, causing discomfort on offense. He went 2-6 from the field with three turnovers and four fouls. That forced Notre Dame to turn to Shrewsberry.
“They were guarding me pretty well,” Burton told BloggerSoDear postgame. “They weren’t letting me catch it as much, and that got me out of my groove.”
Wake Forest
G Boopie Miller
Though Sallis clearly runs the show for Wake Forest, Boopie Miller is a vital part of the offense. Per KenPom, he’s the only Deacon to be used on more than 25% of the team’s possessions.
But, in the past two games, Miller has not been up to his usual level. He went 1-8 with four turnovers in the loss to Georgia Tech and shot 2-6 in the win over Clemson. With him, it can often feel like the phrase “when it rains, it pours.” That goes both ways. When it’s going for Miller, it’s going. When things aren’t working, the poor decision-making and turnovers tend to pop up.
Wake Forest needs the best out of Miller — the one it got in South Bend — when he recorded team-highs in both points (16) and assists (5).
G Parker Friedrichsen
31.7% of Wake Forest’s points come from behind the three-point line, a touch above the national average. The team has started collectively picking it up from there — especially Cam Hildreth and Andrew Carr. But the Deacs need that ringer they always seem to rely on. That’s Friedrichsen.
The past few games have been hot and cold from deep for the freshman. Wake Forest certainly hopes that can shift, especially when the second-half threes weren’t falling last time against Notre Dame.
Keys to the Game
Play your pace
In the first half of Wake Forest’s last matchup with Notre Dame, the Deacs set the tone, counteracting the Irish’s slow speed with quick offense, in turn forcing them to pick it up. That changed in the second, though. Wake Forest was more passive, and it felt like Notre Dame started running the show.
Steve Forbes and his players have discussed making a game look like their practice, not the opponent’s. That seems like a beneficial goal for Wednesday.
Attack Markus Burton
If you read the Burton section above, you’ll note that all four of his fouls Tuesday came in the second half. That happened because Georgia Tech started to go right at him when on offense. That allowed the guard play to shine, especially with Naithan George (24 points).
It’s a fatigue factor, too. Challenging Burton on offense will potentially slow him down when you’re on defense. And, upping the foul count forced head coach Micah Shrewsberry to switch Burton on-and-off with each stoppage to keep him out of defensive sets at the end of the game.
Overall, going at him seems like a positive.
Will Notre Dame be tired?
Sometimes, playing a game the day before the next one can be a good thing. If you get hot, perhaps that carries over. But, the second half was the opposite of what Notre Dame wanted. It was a near implosion, and the Irish had to fight hard to hold on, expending a lot of energy. Will that impact them Wednesday? We’ll see.
Patrol the threes
Notre Dame isn’t a good three-point shooting team, but it took things up a notch Tuesday, hitting 52%. Shrewsberry knocked down 5-8. It’s not the primary concern, but ensuring the Irish don’t have continuous good looks from that range would be beneficial.
Prediction
Wake Forest is not inside the friendly confines of LJVM Coliseum, so that immediately puts me a bit on edge. How the Deacs played against Notre Dame last time is worrisome too, as does the aforementioned pace of play.
But this is March. It’s the ACC Tournament. Survive and advance. Lose and go home. I would imagine Wake Forest is going to be desperate for revenge and hungry to keep this potential run to the NCAA Tournament going.
As long as Wake Forest’s guards neutralize the Irish’s, I feel confident in saying the Deacs will win. If Burton is a big factor, it’s going to be an absolute battle to leave victorious.
Wake Forest wins 73-66