Who’s the Pack playing?
Opponent: North Carolina
Mascot: Dirty Feet | School Location: Chapel Hill, NC | Conference: ACC
2024 Record: 29-8 (14-4, 1st Coastal) | 2024 RPI Rank: 6
2023 Record: 36-24 (14-14, 4th Coastal) | 2023 RPI Rank: 33
2022 Record: 42-22 (15-15, T-4th* Coastal) | 2022 RPI Rank: 11
*2022 ACC Tournament Champions
When? Where? How do I watch?
Location: Doak Field at Dail Park (Raleigh, NC)
Game Time(s): Thu, Apr 18 @ 7:00pm | Fri, Apr 12 @ 6:00pm | Sat, Apr 13 @ 3:00pm
TV: Thursday (ACC Network), Friday (ACCNX), Saturday (ACCNX)
Live Stats: Sidearm Stats
Tell me about this team
NOTE: THIS SERIES STARTS THURSDAY
What a turn for NC State, facing the Atlantic Division and Coastal Division leaders - and the 2023 and 2022 ACC Tournament Champions, respectively - in back-to-back weekends. Gotta love it.
UNC has been a bit odd under Scott Forbes. They were an average team in his first year in 2021, making a Regional but being pretty unspectacular. A late season hot streak in 2022 took them from the wrong side of the postseason bubble to an ACC tournament title and hosting a Super Regional. Last season they were good but not great, getting bounced in an NCAA Regional as a 2-seed.
This year, though, it’s come together, thanks to a brutally good lineup and a pitching staff with a lot of bullpen depth. This is easily Forbes best team and one that rivals some of the best his predecessor, Mike Fox, put together in Chapel Hill.
That lineup is stupidly good with six players posting OPS figures north of 1.000 and a seventh hitter just shy of that mark. Overall, the team is hitting .312/.415/.536 (NC State is hitting .277/.388/.463). The Tar Heels’ numbers drop a little bit in conference play (“only” five players over 1.000 OPS and a team .298/.382/.559 line), but that’s to be expected when you play in the ACC. They’re also really good at running the bases, being 60-of-64 as a group in stolen bases on the season.
Pitching has been strong with six reliable bullpen arms to support a starting rotation that has been plenty good. They’re not getting a lot of depth out of the starters, but with the bullpen they have behind them, that’s not a necessity. Two of the three starters for much of the year have been true freshmen (Jason Decaro, Folger Boaz), but there’s been a bit of a shakeup lately as one of them (Boaz) battled ineffectiveness. Unfortunately, that move seemed to work out for UNC.
If anything has been a weakness, it’s been the fielding, ranking 13th in the ACC in fielding percentage (.965), although they’ve cleaned it up some in conference play (.973). Freshman catcher Luke Stevenson has been excellent behind the dish with few teams challenging him (only 18 stolen base attempts against, with 6 caught stealing). Don’t expect an NC State team that doesn’t run much to start with to challenge him often this weekend.
(Probable) Pitching Matchups
Thursday: RHP Sam Highfill (SR) — RHP Jason DeCaro (FR)
Friday: LHP Dominic Fritton (SO) — LHP Shea Sprague (JR)
Saturday: RHP Logan Whitaker (SR) — RHP Aidan Haugh (JR)
Key Players:
Offense
LF Casey Cook (rSO) - .356/.449/.611, 12.9 BB%, 17.4 K%, 5-5 SB. Honeycutt gets all the hype of UNC’s outfielders, but Cook is the more productive of the two. He doesn’t have Honeycutt’s speed or raw power, but he’s an above average defender, a patient hitter, and absolutely crushes fastballs. He’s a 3rd-to-5th round talent.
CF Vance Honeycutt (JR) - .303/.417/.655, 13.6 BB%, 28.4 K%, 20-22 SB. Once considered the top prospect for the 2024 MLB Draft, Honeycutt has seen his stock dip a bit as strikeout issues have again reared their head this year. He’s still a consensus first round draft pick and the speedy 6’3, 205 pounder is likely to go in the top half of the first round.
1B Parks Harber (SR) - .344/.428/.679, 13.2 BB%, 16.4 K%, 2-2 SB. The Georgia transfer has seen his game hit another level since joining UNC. His BB rate is over 5.0% higher than his best mark with the Bulldogs while his K rate is hovering around a career low. The power has ticked up, too, resulting in a mammoth year. Leads the team in HR in ACC play (10).
DH Alberto Osuna (SR) - .346/.441/.684, 13.7 BB%, 18.0 K%, 0-0 SB. Once a highly regarded JUCO transfer, his adjustment to the ACC wasn’t the smoothest, but he’s producing at the level this year that most thought he would as soon as he stepped on campus.
Pitching
RHP Jason DeCaro (FR) - 2-1, 3.66 ERA, 46.2 IP, 10.8 BB%, 20.0 K%. A big 6’5, 225 New York native who reclassified ahead a year to enter college early, which makes his production all the more impressive. Features a low-to-mid 90’s fastball and a nice, tight breaking ball. Tossed six scoreless innings vs Notre Dame in his last outing.
LHP Shea Sprague (JR) -2-1, 4.06 ERA, 37.2 IP, 3.8 BB%, 20.1 K%. Transfer from Elon where he was a two-time 1st Team All-CAA selection and a 2022 Freshman All-American. Not an overpowering pitcher, but pounds the zone and has a great changeup. Has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in seven of nine starts.
RHP Aidan Haugh (JR) - 2-0, 3.08 ERA, 26.1 IP, 11.8 BB%, 30.3 K%. JUCO transfer from East Wake HS, the 6’6 righty made his first start of the year last weekend against Notre Dame, tossing five scoreless innings. It should be a safe assumption that he’ll get another turn in the rotation this weekend given that result.
LHP Folger Boaz (FR) - 3-1, 5.77 ERA, 39.0 IP, 10.1 BB%, 20.2 K%. The coffee kid started the year in impressive fashion with four nice starts (21.1 IP, 5 ER, 9 BB, 19 K), but then struggled over the next four starts (15.1 IP, 19 ER, 10 BB, 16 K) resulting in him getting bumped from the rotation. He’s talented, though, and I’d expect to see him get some innings in this series (unless, obviously, the reason he didn’t pitch last weekend was because he’s injured).
RHP Matthew Matthijs (SO) - 11-2, 3.18 ERA, 34.0 IP, 6.0 BB%, 26.1 K%. Greenville native who played at D.H. Conley HS, he leads the team in appearances on the year. Throws a lot of strikes, allowing him to be consistent every outing.
LHP Dalton Pence (rSO) - 2-1, 3 SV, 1.84 ERA, 29.1 IP, 13.9 BB%, 29.5 K%. Leads the team in appearances in ACC play, although walks have been a major issue in conference (11 in 13.0 IP). They toyed around with him as a starter last year, but the relief role allows his stuff to play up.
RHP Matt Poston (SR) - 2-1, 4 SV, 5.48 ERA, 21.1 IP, 11.5 BB%, 29.2 K%. The 6’4, 235 pound former JUCO transfer is the co-closer on the team with Pence, although he’s been the more effective one in ACC play. Has only allowed 3 XBH all year. Likes to use a high fastball and a low splitter to mix eye levels.
LHP Kyle Percival (SO) - 4-0, 1.50 ERA, 18.0 IP, 10.3 BB%, 20.5 K%. Effective pitcher when he’s locating, but control has always been his issue. It’s been better this year, but he’s had a short leash in ACC play (5.2 IP, 4 BB, 2 WP). High 80’s, low 90’s guy with a breaking ball that’s tough on lefties, so he’s a LOOGY candidate in all three games.
Quick! Fun Facts!
UNC had a 27-game home winning streak snapped in Tuesday’s loss to Coastal Carolina.
NC State beat UNC for the 2024 ACC Tournament title in Men’s Basketball.
That’s enough.
The Key To A Series Win For State
Same as it ever was for this team: Pitching.
The Pack’s pitching staff came through (for the most part, at least) last week in the big series win at Clemson. If the team can get a repeat performance like that, they’ll have a great shot at taking down the division leaders in back-to-back weeks. If not, then not. Pretty simple.
Prediction
As much as I hate to write it, this is a very good UNC team, looking like a potential national seed for the NCAA tournament. The Tar Heels have a deep bullpen and a lineup that can mash.
Outcome: The good guys manage to snag a win, but drop the series.