It is not helpful to overreact to a singular match — a derby, no less — but Sunday’s defeat felt all too familiar for all the wrong reasons. Tottenham Hotspur is a club with a bright future and some solid pieces, but ultimately this is a club that has real flaws and is clearly a tier below the league’s best. In some ways Spurs did everything needed to secure at least a point against Arsenal, but instead it was another frustrating defeat, fair or not.
Though the clock is ticking, the quest for fourth place is technically not dead (seven points back with two in hand) thanks to Villa only mustering a draw this weekend. However, that result was due to Chelsea storming back in the second half and now puts Spurs in a classic desperately-need-points-against-Chelsea-late-in-the-season situation. Perfect.
Chelsea (t-9th, 48pts) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (5th, 60pts)
Date: Monday, May 2
Time: 2:30 pm ET, 7:30 pm UK
Location: Stamford Bridge, London
TV: Peacock Premium (USA), Sky Sports Main Event (UK)
Most are familiar with Chelsea’s journey thus far: a midtable place and near-neutral goal difference, but an xGD ranking fourth in the league and random moments of quality. Still, Mauricio Pochettino has failed overall this year, and his side has just three wins over the past nine matches, though only losing once (a 5-0 clobbering by Arsenal last week).
Perhaps Chelsea’s best win was the match that still defines Tottenham’s season. That reverse fixture showed a lot about Ange Postecoglou’s mentality and was generally praised more than criticized, but did result in multiple reds and multiple injuries that proved too difficult to overcome. At risk of beating a dead horse, Spurs logged 2.60 PPM prior to that debacle and have averaged just 1.48 PPM since; nothing was the same after that.
Infrequent devastation
While scoring has been an issue at times, the biggest problem for Tottenham is untimely defense. In terms of actual goals, Spurs have gotten away with it more often than not (fifth-best), but xGA tells a different story (11th). The two frustrating scenarios that keep occurring are set pieces and counters, and both were on display in the worst way Sunday.
These are not necessarily Chelsea’s strengths, as the Blues sit near the bottom in goals from both set pieces and counters. However, their attack has solid numbers overall, and Saturday’s win over Villa showed that there is no timidity in taking any and every shot. Even just a couple mistakes might doom the visitors here, and unfortunately Tottenham has made plenty of them at the worst moments this year.
Square pegs, and not enough of them
This fixture brings a good time to reflect on what Postecoglou’s first season has looked like, with plenty of positives, but generally a work in progress. The manager’s unwillingness to compromise was the team’s eventual undoing in the first matchup, and perhaps that will be the case again given his incomplete toolchest, which is only getting smaller with somehow two more injuries arising since the weekend.
Should Spurs falter, the narrative might drift to Battle of the Bridge territory, with Chelsea effectively ending Tottenham’s hopes of a year-end achievement. However, this is not a bottle job or anything to be embarrassed of — Postecoglou has a limited deck, and there is not a great way to play this hand. In hindsight, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Dejan Kulusevski were curious choices on Sunday, but this squad has flaws regardless of the chosen XI. With no great options, the selection criticisms seem less important.