Vegas, baby!
For the second time this calendar year, the NBA has gathered the attention of the sports world to Las Vegas. After introducing this class of rookies during the NBA 2K25 Summer League in July, this time they return to coronate the winner of the Emirates NBA Cup. The final four is set, with the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks facing the third-seeded Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern bracket, and the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder facing the second-seeded Houston Rockets for Western supremacy.
According to ESPN BET, the Thunder are the clear favorites to win the Emirates NBA Cup at +125, followed by the Bucks (+240), Rockets (+450) and Hawks (+525). The NBA Cup Tournament MVP favorites closely follow the team rankings, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+115) the favorite, followed by the best players on each of the subsequent teams (Giannis Antetokounmpo +320, Alperen Sengun +600, and Trae Young +850).
While I agree with ESPN BET that the Thunder are the most likely future champion, with SGA as the associated MVP, there is little juice (nor fun) in going chalk. There are many ways this can play out, so let's look at some of the intriguing angles that could provide value.
Atlanta Hawks +3.5 over Milwaukee Bucks (-105); Trae Young to win Cup MVP (+850)
The Hawks enter the semifinals as hot as any of the other three finalists, winners of seven of their past eight games including two victories over the Eastern Conference-leading Cleveland Cavaliers and a 15-point win over the Bucks in Milwaukee. A hot team is a dangerous team in a one-and-done-style tournament, something we've learned from decades of March Madness.
Another truism learned from March Madness is just how big an impact a dominant lead guard can have on a tournament run, and Young is as explosive as they come. He leads the NBA with 12.2 assists per game and is the epicenter of everything the Hawks do on offense. Young has five 30-10 double-doubles this season, including an outrageous 31-point/20-assist effort last week against the Lakers. Young's MVP odds are longer than the Hawks' championship odds, but if they win he is very clearly the most likely Hawks player to take MVP honors.
Houston Rockets +5.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder (-106)
The Thunder and Rockets rank second and third in the NBA in fewest points allowed, and each flexed their defense in the quarterfinals. The Thunder held the Mavericks to 104 points and the Rockets limited the Warriors to only 90. A defensive-minded game is more likely to be close than an offensive explosion, so the Rockets getting such a significant number of points in the matchup could be to their advantage.
These two teams have also already played twice this season, with each winning on their home court. With this game at a neutral site, the Rockets have a good chance to at least keep the game close enough for the points to matter.
Damian Lillard to win Cup MVP (+1800)
The Bucks have the second-shortest odds to win the Cup, and Antetokounmpo is playing at such a high level he is a contender to win NBA MVP. But, if the Bucks were to win the Emirates NBA Cup, it would likely be because Lillard was playing at a high level as well. He has the explosive scoring ability, the late-game clutch gene, and the penchant for making the big stage into Dame Time, particularly over a two-game span, to vault himself into MVP contention.
Lillard has scored 25 or more points in seven of his past eight games, but his best two-game combo of the season came in a back-to-back against the Cavaliers. Both games came down to the wire, with Lillard averaging 38.5 PPG, 8.0 APG and 7.5 3PG. If he plays at this level and the Bucks win the Cup, his chances of challenging Giannis for MVP honors would be much better than the chasm-like difference in their MVP odds (+1800 vs. +320)