Week 15 of the NFL season concludes Monday night with an NFC South battle between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are 6.5-point favorites, up 2.5 after an open of -4. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored is 48.5, up one from where it opened.
With the line on the move and postseason positioning on the line, you need to hear what SportsLine expert Mike Tierney has to say.
A veteran sportswriter with decades of experience covering the NFL, Tierney studies matchups like nobody else and he has used his expertise to crush NFL picks.
After yet another primetime cash Saturday when he nailed the Under in Chargers-Chiefs, he's now an insane 48-21 on NFL over-under picks since the start of last season. He's also hitting those picks over 70 percent of the time in prime time. Anybody who has been following his selections is way, way up.
Now, Tierney has analyzed every matchup, every trend and every angle for Falcons-Bucs and locked in his picks.
Tierney knows these teams are loaded with offensive weapons. The Falcons, winners of four of five, have a top-10 offense by total yardage. Quarterback Matt Ryan, wide receiver Julio Jones and running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman comprise one of the most talented groups of offensive skill players in the league.
The Bucs have firepower as well. Since coming back from injury, Jameis Winston has thrown for 555 yards and four touchdowns in a two-week span. He has plenty of options to spread the ball around, including wide receivers Mike Evans (55 catches for 760 yards and four touchdowns) and DeSean Jackson (49-657-3) and the tight end duo of Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard, who have combined for 11 touchdowns.
Neither team is renowned for its defense. Both sides are giving up over 20 points per game. Tampa Bay especially has struggled, coming into this game 22nd in scoring defense and 31st in total defense.
But just because these two offensive teams are going against questionable defenses doesn't mean "Monday Night Football" is going over 48.5.
Despite plenty of talent on both offenses, the Bucs and Falcons haven't clicked the way many expected this season.
The Falcons, a team many thought could score more than anybody else in the NFL this season, are 19th in points per game. The Bucs, a trendy preseason pick to make a run to the playoffs thanks to their offensive prowess, are only 22nd in scoring.
Recent history points to the under here as well. Four straight Tampa Bay home games have hit the under, while the Falcons have gone under in seven of their past 10 games.
Tierney has evaluated all of these stats and circumstances and isolated eye-opening data that caused him to make a strong pick on one side of the total. He's sharing what it is only over at SportsLine.
So which side of the total should you back in Falcons-Buccaneers on "Monday Night Football"? Visit SportsLine now to see what eye-opening data determines whether Falcons-Buccaneers goes over or under, all from the expert who is an astonishing 48-21 on his NFL totals picks since the start of last season.