It’s almost time for the talking to end and the playing to begin.
A few days before Alabama kicks off its 2022 football season against Utah State in Bryant-Denny Stadium, the AL.com beat writers covering the Crimson Tide took our best swing at predicting the future.
We did this last year entering kick off so we tried it again as Nick Saban enters his 16th season in Tuscaloosa. You can see where we hit and where we missed and we’ll revisit these forecasts throughout this fall.
So, let’s get to it.
Here is exactly how the 2022 Alabama football season will go.
The strength of this Alabama team will be …
Mike Rodak: The passing game. When you have a returning Heisman winner at quarterback, it is hard to look elsewhere to find the strength of the team. Alabama’s passing offense, while not as consistent as 2020, still ranked seventh in the nation in efficiency last season. Young was a big reason for that, and Alabama will find a way to adjust with a new group of receivers.
Michael Casagrande: The pass rush is too impressive to ignore. The Crimson Tide recorded 57.0 sacks a year ago -- the most in the Saban era -- and this group could might push that number even further. With Will Anderson and Dallas Turner as the outside linebacker bookends and talented defensive linemen pushing from the middle, it’ll take a special line or retooled scheme to keep opposing quarterback jerseys clean. Anderson had 17.5 sacks a year ago. Don’t think 20+ is impossible this fall.
The weakness of this Alabama team will be …
Mike Rodak: Lack of a shutdown cornerback. Nick Saban has expressed disappointment in how his team allowed 20 points to Georgia in the final 10 minutes of the national championship game, and cornerback play was part of the problem. LSU transfer Eli Ricks was supposed to be the fix, but the college football world might have gotten ahead of itself when it crowned Ricks as a preseason All-American and top-10 draft choice. He has yet to win a starting job and cornerback remains the most in-flux position entering the season.
Michael Casagrande: There’s considerable experience returning at almost every phase of this roster. To find the weakness, I’ll look at where nobody has established themselves as the outright starter. That must be the cornerbacks where four players are listed as co-starters for two spots. Georgia hit a few crucial big plays downfield in the national title game win over the Crimson Tide in January. If a quarterback has the time to operate, there’s a potential for busted plays on the back end of this defense.
Who is the most irreplaceable Alabama player?
Mike Rodak: The choice here is obviously between Young or Will Anderson, and I’ll lean toward Young because of the depth chart behind him. Jalen Milroe showed some flashes in the spring game but Alabama’s chances of winning a national championship would take a hit if he needed to play extended time this season in place of Young. Losing Anderson would be huge, but Alabama has layers of depth at outside linebacker.
Michael Casagrande: It’s a tougher question than it may seem while also circling back to a predictable answer. Though Jalen Milroe appears to be a capable backup with a strong arm and dangerous speed, Alabama has only three scholarship quarterbacks. True freshman Ty Simpson is the other, so while there’s real talent in the quarterback room, not having a fourth option makes Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young even more valuable.
Who could be a few off-the-radar players?
Mike Rodak: Chris Braswell, Terrion Arnold. I’ll go with two names on defense that were rarely heard last season but could be a bigger part of the equation in 2022. Braswell, a former five-star recruit in his third season, impressed in the spring and could find his way onto the field as a third pass-rushing option alongside Anderson and Dallas Turner. Arnold, also a highly-rated recruit last year, has earned praise from Saban for his fall camp and could start at cornerback.
Michael Casagrande: This is also tough since the radar doesn’t leave many untouched at Alabama. Jaheim Oatis wouldn’t have been the first pick as a freshman starter so the fact he’s co-first team at nose guard is notable. Freshman receiver Aaron Anderson had some offseason juice but was hurt and didn’t make an impact during the preseason. How about transfer receiver Tyler Harrell. There wasn’t much buzz about him in August and he was the only of five Power 5 transfers not listed as a starter. Once he gets fully healthy and the playbook down, he could be a home run hitter with track star speed coming from Louisville.
Which Alabama player will get the most Heisman votes?
Mike Rodak: Bryce Young: This is between Young, Anderson and Jahmyr Gibbs. I’ll go with Young because the Heisman is still a quarterback-centric award that will be difficult for a defensive player such as Anderson to win. Voters could ultimately learn away from Young even with a comparable season to last year’s, but I think they would lean toward another quarterback, rather than a different Alabama player.
Michael Casagrande: Will Anderson will get the love he missed last year. Heisman voters showed they were willing to go with a defensive player last year when Aiden Hutchinson finished second in the voting and Anderson is arguably more explosive. With Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud getting the early quarterback love and the fact back-to-back Heismans just aren’t a thing, I’ll go with Anderson.
Which will be the most dangerous game?
Mike Rodak: Ole Miss. The only Power 5 team on Alabama’s schedule to win 10 games last season? That would be the Rebels, who flopped when they came to Tuscaloosa last season but otherwise were one of the SEC’s best teams last season. If Lane Kiffin can figure out his quarterback position, Ole Miss could be a tricky November trip for the Tide. Two years ago, that game was a shootout – and the stadium was only partially full.
Michael Casagrande: There are a few, honestly, but Oct. 15 at Tennessee stands out for a few reasons. First, the Vols are showing some life under Josh Heupel. They were right with Alabama in the fourth quarter last season in a game the Crimson Tide eventually won 52-24. Secondly, Alabama will be coming off an emotional rematch with Texas A&M the previous week and the hangover effect can be real. Should the Vols have some early-season momentum entering a home date with a rival they haven’t beat since 2006, things could get spicy.
Who is the sneaky interesting opponent?
Mike Rodak: LSU. The Tigers are a bit of a mystery in Brian Kelly’s first season, but I would not rule out them contending for one of the top three spots in the SEC West. And what’s not interesting about a trip to Baton Rouge?
Michael Casagrande: That Oct. 1 trip to Arkansas is another one to circle. This one comes a week before Texas A&M and Arkansas proved itself a contender last year in Tuscaloosa. The 42-35 Crimson Tide win came with a few tense fourth-quarter moments in an SEC West series that’s lacked any excitement in years. It’s also worth noting the Razorbacks were picked to finish third in the SEC West behind Alabama and Texas A&M in preseason media voting. It’s been more than a decade since the Hogs were considered top tier in the West.
Most overrated opponent?
Mike Rodak: Texas A&M. This is between Texas and Texas A&M, but I don’t fully understand why the Aggies are considered by some to be a fringe top-5 team when they have simply not shown it under Jimbo Fisher. Catching lightning a bottle with Zach Calzada last season in Kyle Field to beat Alabama is one thing but doing it in a juiced-up Bryant-Denny Stadium this October will be another.
Michael Casagrande: Texas? The Longhorns were No. 18 in the preseason coaches poll (with one mysterious first-place vote) a year after losing the final six regular-season games of the season. That includes Kansas. At home. Maybe Texas will be back at some point. And perhaps Arch Manning will lead them back but the urge to push them as a contender in 2022 isn’t moving me.
Who is the best player Alabama will face this year?
Mike Rodak: Bijan Robinson. The Texas running back was one of the best players in college football this season and figures to remain there as a junior this season.
Michael Casagrande: Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker impressed me last year with the way he ran the fast-break Vol offense. And despite what was said in the previous question, Texas running back Bijan Robinson could be the best in the nation at his position.
Who’ll have the most receiving yards?
Mike Rodak: Jermaine Burton. This question has more potential answers than it did last season, but I’ll stick with the safest bet in Burton, the junior Georgia transfer. His combination of size and speed should make him useful to Young in different situations, and he seems to have been Alabama’s most reliable receiver since the spring.
Michael Casagrande: I like the reliability of Jermaine Burton but the speed of Traeshon Holden gives me a gut feeling about him. He had a big performance in the second scrimmage and I’m going with the dark horse.
Who’ll have the most rushing yards?
Mike Rodak: Jahmyr Gibbs. I would be shocked if it was someone else. Gibbs could produce big receiving numbers for Alabama, but his rushing output should be considerable, too.
Michael Casagrande: Gibbs. If the hype is even half true, he should have a big season. Let’s say 1,200 rushing yards and 500 receiving if we’re getting specific.