Week 5 was a showcase of the dangers of betting the over on NFL props. In a game where injuries are commonplace, one big hit can ruin you right out of the gate.
That’s what happened with last week’s Teddy Bridgewater passing yards recommendation. Bridgewater got one play into the Miami Dolphins’ game against the New York Jets before leaving as part of the league’s concussion protocol. He was responsible for as many safeties created (for the other team) as passes attempted. This meant he missed his OVER 239.5 yards prop by a mere 240 yards.
Saquon Barkley was a less dramatic example when he missed several snaps in the second half of the New York Giants’ upset win over the Green Bay Packers. Barkley had run 12 times for 68 yards before ceding handoffs to Matt Breida, ultimately leaving him short of his 77.5 rushing yard total despite a wonderful 5.7 yards per carry.
This, combined with the awful performances of Cam Akers and James Robinson, continued our regression and dropped this column to .500 last weekend. Fortunately, my leans continued to thrive, mocking me for not having the guts to officially pick them in a 3-0 Sunday that pushed that section’s record to 13-1. Don’t worry, regression’s coming there too, but maybe keep an extra close eye on it until it does.
Here’s who I like this week. Official plays in bold.
- Jimmy Garoppolo OVER 231.5 passing yards. The Falcons have given up 230-plus passing yards in four of five games this season and allowed 179 of Tom Brady’s 351 passing yards last week to come after the catch. Garoppolo’s whole plan is to use his playmakers to turn short targets into long gains. That should continue in Week 6.
- Tom Brady UNDER 0.5 rushing yards. He hasn’t finished a game with positive rushing yardage this season and it seems likely he’ll be kneeling this one out, which would erase any modest games should he escape the pocket. You’re getting +115 on this, which helps soothe the pain of an incredibly modest total.
- Breece Hall OVER 54.5 rushing yards. The wheels are officially off the James Robinson bandwagon. Let’s ride with Hall instead, who gets the same advantageous matchup Saquon Barkley did last week against the Packers and their 30th-ranked rushing defense. Why test Green Bay’s secondary when you can give the ball to Hall, who played a career-best 69 percent of his team’s snaps last week?
- Cam Akers UNDER 42.5 rushing yards. Akers faced the league’s 16th-best rushing defense last week and gained 33 yards on 13 carries. Now he gets the 18th-best unit and still has to contend with an offensive line that’s been a problem all season long. Maybe this is an overreaction after getting burned by Akers last week, but LA’s running game is wildly untrustable this fall.
- Kenneth Walker UNDER 64.5 rushing yards. Walker is now RB1 in Seattle, where Pete Carroll has run the ball less than 40 percent of the time because the Seahawks, more often than not, are either trailing or locked in a shootout. Walker had 88 yards on only eight carries last week, but 69 of them came on a single breakaway run — otherwise he languished at 2.7 yards per touch. The Cardinals will be ready for him in Week 6, and while he’s capable of making this line look stupid there’s a chance he stumbles in his first NFL start.
- George Pickens OVER 46.5 receiving yards. The rookie has emerged as one of Kenny Pickett’s favorite targets. In Pickett’s two appearances, Pickens has been the target of 13 of his 65 throws — a healthy 20 percent target rate that’s resulted in 10 catches and 154 yards. He faces a tough secondary in Week 6, but the Steelers are happy to throw the hell out of the ball while trailing — Pickett dropped back 55 times in last week’s 38-3 mollywopping vs. the Bills. Pittsburgh will likely be trailing a lot on Sunday. Expect Pickens to get his share of targets again.
- George Kittle OVER 44.5 receiving yards. Kittle is finding his place in the offense after an early season injury and the switch from Trey Lance to Garoppolo behind center. This is a reasonable total for a player who has had 227 total receiving yards in two career games against the Falcons.
Last week: 4-4 (.500)
Season to date: 23-15 (.605)
My official leans (not plays) for Week 6
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Here are the bets I like, just not enough to include in the official section above:
- Tom Brady UNDER 279.5 passing yards. Brady averages nearly 310 passing yards per game against the Steelers in his career, but those were very different Pittsburgh squads than this hopeless bunch. Don’t expect him to make it three straight games with 50-plus pass attempts — and instead expect plenty of Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White carries.
- Tyler Higbee UNDER 5.5 catches and 54.5 receiving yards. Higbee missed practice this week nursing a bum ankle. He could be in line for a lighter workload after playing at least 93 percent of his team’s snaps each game this fall. Or he’ll get spammed with passes because the Rams don’t have a ton of receiving talent right now and Matthew Stafford’s lack of protection leaves him looking for short-range targets.
- Mike Evans OVER 63.5 receiving yards. This is threading the needle a bit with Brady mentioned above, but this is an attainable total for the player who’s been the heart of Tampa’s passing offense this season (316 yards in four games — 120 more than anyone else on the roster).
Last week: 3-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 13-1 (.929)