Bears vs. Patriots props: Bet on Rhamondre Stevenson to pile up yards

From an offensive perspective, Week 7 of the NFL can be summed up in three words: Feast or famine.

Five of the league’s 13 games have featured 52 or more combined points (with three of those games in the 60s), while the other eight contests had 43 or fewer combined points (including five that didn’t surpass 30).

What do bookmakers project in the Monday Night Football matchup between the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots? More famine, as the consensus Over/Under sits at 40.5.

Our Bears vs. Patriots prop bets echo that opinion, as we envision a contest that fans of 1970s football will surely appreciate. Here are our top Monday Night Football props.

Note: Odds and numbers updated as of 12:30 p.m. ET on Oct. 24.

This is a chalky recommendation, as Stevenson has the shortest odds of any player on this FanDuel prop. He’s ahead of Chicago’s David Montgomery (+260) and his teammate, Damien Harris (+270).

It’s also a bit of a risky recommendation, as anyone who has played fantasy football the past two decades can appreciate. (Stay away from Patriots running backs!)

Still, it’s a better bet than playing Stevenson’s rushing prop Over the total of 61.5. For one thing, this one has solid plus-money value. More importantly, the second-year running back from Oklahoma has been New England’s primary workhorse the last four weeks, with 70 carries for 376 yards. (By comparison, Harris has 57 carries and 257 yards in five games.)

Stevenson enters Monday ranked 11th in the NFL in rushing (sixth among those who have played only six games). He’s averaging more than 5 yards per carry, and he’ll be toting the rock against a Bears defense that is getting gashed for 163 yards per game on the ground. Only the Houston Texans’ rush defense (164.7 ypg) is worse.

With Patriots quarterback Mac Jones slated to return after missing three games with an ankle injury, look for coach Bill Belichick to order a lot of handoffs Monday. Let’s just hope most of those continue to go to Stevenson — and that Stevenson continues to deliver.

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As we noted in our Bears vs. Patriots betting preview, it’s been a rough sophomore season for Fields. Now the Bears’ quarterback must try to solve the NFL’s greatest defensive mastermind in Belichick. Good luck with that.

Belichick has made a living making life hell for quarterbacks — particularly those with limited experience and limited skills. Fields definitely checks both of those boxes.

Yes, the former Ohio State star has been “better” the last three weeks, turning in his three most productive passing efforts against the Giants, Vikings and Commanders. But the numbers still weren’t great (174 yards vs. New York; 208 at Minnesota; 190 vs. Washington).

While the Vikings have one of the league’s leakiest pass defenses, the Giants and Commanders are right in the middle of the pack. In fact, both are slightly better than New England in the passing yards allowed department. However, when it comes to the underrated category of yards per attempt, New England ranks ninth (6.68).

The Patriots also get after the quarterback, having registered 17 sacks (more on that shortly). Among teams that have played six games (as New England has), only the Bills have more (19).

In what has been a nightmarish season for Fields, expect more terror in Foxborough on Monday night. Play Fields Under his passing total at FanDuel.

Jones has thrown 30 or more passes in all three games he has started this season. So why expect that to change Monday night? One word: situation.

As noted above, Jones missed the last three contests with an ankle sprain. So it doesn’t make sense for Belichick to devise a pass-heavy game plan, especially since New England likely will be playing from ahead for much of the night.

Another reason why we don’t expect Jones to chuck it all over the lot: While the Bears play olé defense against the run, their secondary is stout. Only the Packers (168.9) and Broncos (173.1) give up fewer passing yards per game than Chicago (178.7).

The Bears’ expected offensive game plan also plays a part in this Monday Night Football prop bet. Chicago coach Matt Eberflus knows his only chance to win is to shorten the contest by running the ball early and often against a so-so Patriots rush defense. And what do you know? The Bears’ strength offensively (by a mile) is running the football.

Jones may throw the ball around in the first half as he tests his ankle and the Patriots try to establish an early lead. But his drop backs will drop off considerably as the game progresses, and we see him finishing with about 24 attempts. Play the Under on this Bears vs. Patriots prop at FanDuel.

One year after establishing a career high with 12.5 sacks in his first season with New England, Judon is nearly halfway to breaking that mark just six games into the 2022-23 campaign.

Not only are Judon’s six sacks just one off the league lead, but he’s dropped a quarterback at least once in five of six games. The exception was last week in Cleveland, when he failed to get to the Browns’ Jacoby Brissett.

Well, the seventh-year pro shouldn’t have much trouble getting to Fields, who has been sacked 23 times in six games this season. Only Matt Ryan and Joe Burrow have hit the turf more often, with both at 24 sacks in seven contests.

Playing behind what is arguably the NFL’s worst offensive line two years running, Field has now been sacked a whopping 59 times in 18 games (16 starts).

Unless the Bears triple-team Judon all night, he’s getting to Fields at least once. Lay the reasonable price and play “yes” on Judon’s sack prop at FanDuel.

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