The Boston Red Sox (30-30) and Cleveland Guardians (27-32) embark on a 3-game series at Progressive Field Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Red Sox lead 2-1
Boston lost to Tampa Bay 4-1 Monday and was beaten by the Rays 3-1 in a wrap-around series at Fenway Park. The BoSox are just 4-10 with a .681 OPS in their last 14 games.
Cleveland was off Monday after going 4-3 on a road trip at the Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins last week. The Guardians are 8-6 with a 2.83 ERA over their last 14 games at home.
Red Sox at Guardians projected starters
LHP James Paxton vs. RHP Shane Bieber
Paxton (1-1, 4.26 ERA) is making his 5th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 12.8 K/9 through 19 IP.
- Coming off the sharpest start of the year: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K in a 5-4 loss to vs. the Cincinnati Reds Wednesday
- Missed April with a hamstring strain
- Owns a 3.61 ERA over 141 career games
Bieber (4-3, 3.72 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 through 75 IP.
- Current Boston batters own a high-contact .819 OPS against him
- K/9 figure is a would-be career low
Red Sox at Guardians odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:47 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Red Sox +106 (bet $100 to win $106) | Guardians -124 (bet $124 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-188) | Guardians -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -114 | U: -106)
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Red Sox at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Guardians 3
Moneyline
The Red Sox are 13-5 in the last 18 meetings with the Guardians and 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Cleveland.
Bieber is running into a lot of bats and is in for some ERA bloat unless he gets things turned around. Paxton sets up the other way: he’s been hurt by a .310 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and a 16.7% home runs/fly balls (HR/FB) rate. He’s a fly-ball hurler who figures to be aided by a hefty, inward pitcher’s breeze in this one. The bullpens figure to be a more even proposition than what shows on paper (ERAs: Cleveland 3.06, Boston 3.83).
The Guardians are 1-4 across their last 5 games after an off day. Boston has played a much tougher schedule and has a much stronger offense.
Tab this one for a partial-unit play on BOSTON (+106). Early betting — toward the Crimson Hose — has taken a bit of the starch out of this play, but the current return still makes for value.
Run line/Against the spread
These 2 clubs have played a ton of 1-run games so far and with a low-scoring run environment, the idea of a Sox-plus-a-run play has some lure. But there is a lot of juice here.
PASS.
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Over/Under
Plenty of expected-vs.-actual results — for offenses, starters, bullpens — swing both ways across this total. The market doesn’t seem to have a good feel for this one and books are all over the map.
AVOID.
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