Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season wraps up Monday night as the Las Vegas Raiders hit the road to face the Detroit Lions (-7.5, 46.5).
What can we expect from a betting standpoint?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Tyler Fulghum, Seth Walder and Aaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
The Raiders are struggling at 3-4. The Lions (5-2) got a big wake-up call last week against the Ravens. How do you see this one playing out, and are the Lions laying too many points?
Schatz: Yes, the Lions got spanked by the Ravens, but that's one of the best, most well-rounded teams in football. It was just one game, as awful as it was. The Lions are still fifth in DVOA on the season. The Raiders are 30th. I'm comfortable with the Lions and laying 7.5.
Walder: I'm with Aaron and am willing to lay the points with the Lions. In particular, I think the Lions' offense should roll. Just about the only player on the Raiders' defense who scares you is Maxx Crosby, and he's facing Penei Sewell, who ranks second in pass block win rate among tackles. I like Sewell in that matchup, and if that's right Jared Goff should have all day.
Fulghum: The Lions aren't not laying too many points. I like Detroit -7.5 in this bounce-back spot against the Raiders. Despite the final score last week, the Lions are still a very good team. They didn't get exposed; they just ran into a bad spot. This, however, is a great spot for a bounce-back. They're back at home, where Goff is far more productive, and they have a plush matchup against a Raiders team that's very forgiving on defense and fairly punchless on offense. Detroit wins this one big.
Davante Adams' receiving yards prop is set at 75.5. He hasn't surpassed 57 yards in any of the past three games, but Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to play in this one. Is this a prop that you're in on?
Schatz: The Lions allow just 53 yards per game to opposing WR1s, which is fourth best in the NFL. They allow more yards to WR2s, so this could be a nice Jakobi Meyers game. I would go UNDER on Adams and 75.5 yards.
Jahmyr Gibbs is coming off his biggest game as a pro (11 rushes for 68 yards and a touchdown, 9 catches for 58 yards). Are you expecting that to carry over to this game for the rookie running back, and are there any Gibbs props you have your eye on?
Moody: With David Montgomery already ruled out, I'm expecting Gibbs' momentum to carry over to Monday night's game. Against a Raiders defense that gives up the ninth-most rushing yards per game (129.0), Gibbs could set season highs in rushing attempts. Bet the OVER on 69.5 rushing yards.
Fulghum: I love this spot for Jahmyr Gibbs. Montgomery is out again, so the backfield is once again going to be dominated by the rookie out of Alabama. Gibbs delivered 126 yards of offense and a touchdown last week in the blowout loss on 20 touches. I expect similar opportunity and output in this game due to the matchup. D'Onta Foreman scored 3 touchdowns and accounted for 120 yards last week against this defense. I would play Gibbs anytime TD + Lions win SGP (-124) and OVER 100.5 rush + rec yds.
What is your favorite prop bet for this game?
Moody: Jared Goff OVER 272.5 passing yards. There were two things that caught my eye about this prop bet. First, it's at plus odds, and second, Goff's home road splits. Goff has averaged 267.3 passing yards per game at home for the Lions this season. Despite allowing only 187.4 passing yards per game, the Raiders' defensive front ranks 24th. The Lions' offensive line ranks 11th in pass block win rate. Goff should have ample time to deliver the football to Amon-Ra St. Brown and the other receivers.
Walder: Tre'von Moehrig OVER 4.5 tackles + assists (-117). My model projects 5.6 tackles plus assists for Moehrig, partly driven by the fact that the Raiders are heavy underdogs. There's a good chance the Lions take the lead and start running a lot. Even though Moehrig is a safety, all those run plays end in a tackle somewhere and enough of that volume should make its way to Moehrig.
Is there anything else you're playing for Monday night?
Moody: Jakobi Meyers OVER 4.5 receptions. As the Raiders' No. 2 receiver, Meyers has been everything they could have hoped for. He's reliable, gets open and has a tendency to come down with a reception when the Raiders need it most. In five of Meyers' six games this season, he has surpassed 4.5 receptions. Meyers should be able to keep the streak going against a Lions' team in which the Raiders are huge underdogs.
Moody: Michael Mayer OVER 21.5 receiving yards. Jimmy Garoppolo will start for the Raiders on Monday night, which bodes well for Mayer. This season, Detroit's defense has allowed some great performances from tight ends. With Garoppolo under center, Mayer has averaged 3.5 receptions and 57 receiving yards. This season, the rookie tight end has averaged 13.0 yards per reception.
Fulghum: Lions OVER 3.5 Total TD (+143), Lions Team Total OVER 27.5. I like the price on this team TD prop bet. Like I said, I fully expect the Lions offense to bounce back in a big way at home in a plush matchup. Not only should Gibbs be effective on the ground, but Jared Goff has glaring home/road splits. He's far more effective at Ford Field than he is on the road. He, too, is set up to post a great box score.