The Padres need a lot of things from a lot of people in a lot of areas to find a way back into the playoffs after the All-Star break. Start with pitching. Stir in offensive consistency.
Who, though, can impact the team and the road to come most?
Those thought calisthenics led to picking a pitcher and position player who have the potential to shoulder-shake fates and fight off the storm clouds when the weather sours.
On the mound, it’s Dylan Cease. It’s Dylan Cease because he’s Dylan Cease. It’s also Cease because of injuries to Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove and the innings odometer that’s running on Michael King.
The Padres’ starting rotation is seemingly being held together with duct tape.
If Cease is not the dependable anchor he’s showed he can be, no amount of tape will be enough. It’s already a huge ask for those left to keep the ship from listing with the uncertainty of the injuries to Darvish and Musgrove.
Darvish, now on the restricted list for an unexplained personal issue, might not come back at all.
There is no margin of error for a staff already stretched as thin as typing paper. Though King and knuckleballer Matt Waldron have held the line admirably, Cease is the proven commodity. Over 20 starts with San Diego, Cease is 8-8 with a 3.99 ERA. In spite of a down start here and there, his ability to wipe out hitters remains unmistakable. Cease’s 149 strikeouts rank first in the National League and second in the majors; only Chicago White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet (150) has more.
With Cease shining, the Padres look like a playoff team. Without him? Shudder.
The Padres need only rewind to the postseason losses of arms Mike Clevinger and Dinelson Lamet in 2020 with the Dodgers on deck to show what a decapitated rotation means when the lights shine brightest.
If Cease can be good or at least dependably solid, there’s pitching to fill some gaps with the trade deadline looming. There’s no replacement for him, however.
Among position players, nobody matters more than Manny Machado. He’s been banged up and is coming off an offseason right elbow extensor tendon surgery, so it’s hard to know what he could be — or not be — by season’s end.
When Machado is good, the Padres are good. The math is that simple.
Some argue that the healthy and productive return of Fernando Tatis Jr. matters just as much, if not more. There’s truth in that, but this is Machado’s clubhouse. The Padres feast on his confidence and swagger.
If Machado is rolling, the Padres roll.
When the Padres reached the playoffs in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Machado finished third in National League MVP voting with a robust 160 OPS+. In 2022, when the team marched to the NLCS, he finished as an MVP runner-up with 32 home runs and 102 RBIs.
The production slipped by Machado’s lofty standards in 2023, and the Padres missed the playoffs. Machado hit just .258 with an OPS+ of 113, his lowest total since his second season in the big leagues.
Though he hit 30 home runs and finished with 91 driven in, the Padres needed more consistent contact along the way.
The Machado talk assumes coal-shovelers like Jurickson Profar, Jackson Merrill and Luis Arraez continue doing the types of things that propelled them to Tuesday’s All-Star Game.
Getting over the hump? Making a run? Creating a cushion? That’s where Machado can find another gear and carry a team. Machado has caught fire over the last month, hitting .326 with seven home runs, 19 RBIs and an OPS of .942. The surge has boosted his season totals to a .267 average with 13 homers, 52 RBIs and a .742 OPS.
Will it help if Jake Cronenworth gets hot? If Xander Bogaerts comes back and rediscovers his Boston stroke? If the catching platoon of Kyle Higashioka and Luis Campusano delivers a bit of pop? Of course.
Machado can be a full-fledged game-changer, though.
In his career, Machado’s average and OPS have been 14 and 35 points lower after the break. The Padres can’t afford a slide, even a subtle one. They need Machado to be better and do more.
The National League is a tangled, tantalizing mess. Nine teams are fighting for three wild-card spots, with the six on the outside all within 3 1/2 games. A player or two elevating things can matter mightily as the sorting process gains steam.
The importance of Cease and Machado are connected, despite the differing roles. If Machado heats up, he needs the pitcher to keep the rotation whole. If Cease holds up his end, he needs Machado to spark more run scoring.
If the pair excels, though, the ability of the Padres to consistently win ramps up.
This isn’t about catching the Dodgers in the NL West or competing with the Phillies. Not right now.
It’s about doing enough to make the playoffs, then hoping you’re healthy and can score enough to trip up teams like that when the moment matters most.
The bridge to get there?
Start with Machado and Cease.