Believe it or not, the NBA playoffs are rapidly approaching. Before you know it, we'll be watching meaningless March and April games as between lottery teams as the true contenders ramp up for the postseason.
There's little debate about which team is the favorite to win the title -- the Warriors have been, and will continue to be in the driver's seat as long as they stay relatively healthy. But with the rest of the field, particularly in the Eastern Conference, it's anyone's game.
Some might find it a bit surprising that with the recent slides by the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Boston Celtics, the Toronto Raptors have emerged as the Eastern Conference team with the best chance to win the NBA championship, according to the SportsLine computer model projections.
Here are the current projections, provided by SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh:
NBA Eastern Conference title chances
| Projected wins | Conference title | NBA title | |
|---|---|---|---|
Toronto Raptors |
55.0 |
29.04% |
9.92% |
Boston Celtics |
54.3 |
25.17% |
7.96% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 49.4 | 21.55% | 6.30% |
These projections contrast the Westgate odds, which currently have the Cavs at 6/1 to win the title, while the Raptors and Celtics each have 15/1 odds.
"The computer prioritizes the current season statistics, and not more subjective things like playoff experience or history of clutch performances," Oh explained. "So if you just looked at key stats (point differential, field goal percentage differential, rebounding differential, turnover margin), Toronto is better than both Boston and Cleveland."
Point Differential
- Raptors: +7.3
- Celtics: +4.4
- Cavs: +0.5
FG% Differential
- Raptors: +1.9 percent
- Celtics: +1.4 percent
- Cavs: 0.0 percent
Rebounding Diff
- Raptors: +1.2
- Celtics: +0.3
- Cavs: -2.3
Turnover Margin (Opp-Own)
- Raptors: 1.7
- Celtics: 0.4
- Cavs: -0.9
"The computer simulations basically reward consistency and statistical quality over a large sample size of games," Oh continued. "But as we know, teams like Cleveland can be entirely different, especially defensively, when it counts in the playoffs.
"I would say if someone puts more stock in proven playoff experience, you are going to still favor Boston (with Kyrie Irving) and Cleveland. But there could be real betting value on a team like Toronto because the public isn't clued in on just how impressive some of Toronto's numbers are."
Before you start thinking the Raptors' championship percentage is high, keep in mind that the Warriors have a 52.88 percent chance to win it all. Being in the same conference as Golden State diminishes the title chances of the Houston Rockets significantly (5.49 percent), even though they're projected to have the second-most wins in the league at 55.7.
Despite continued regular-season success, it's hard to consider the Raptors as true playoff contenders because of their playoff struggles in recent years. Even when they managed to win two games in the 2016 conference finals against the Cavs, the general consensus is that they never really had a chance.
But this year could be different. Toronto is playing an up-tempo style and shooting more 3-pointers, which could lend itself to better playoff performance. They're not relying as heavily on their two All-Stars, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, who have had historic struggles come playoff time. Add in the fact that the Cavs are in disarray and the Celtics' offense is questionable at best, and this could be the year that the Raptors finally break through.