This season has been a bit of a ride for the Milwaukee Bucks. They’ve felt both underwhelming and on-the-cusp dangerous. On paper, they have enough talent, athleticism and length to bother every team in the league. Instead, inconsistent play, schematic limitations and things not going according to plan — the Thon Maker leap has not happened, for example — have them in the middle of the Eastern Conference pack with a 27-23 record.
The Bucks are currently trending upwards. Since firing former head coach Jason Kidd, the Bucks are 4-1. The correlation isn’t that clean — Milwaukee hasn’t exactly played a murder’s row of competition — but it’s still a positive sign for a team on the brink.
More positive news, though it’s mixed with some bad: Jabari Parker is set to make his return on Friday night. He hasn’t played since last February when he suffered another torn ACL. In a cruel twist, he suffered that injury on the same night Khris Middleton made his season debut from a hamstring injury that had kept him out since training camp. Strangely enough, Parker returns right as reigning Rookie of the Year Malcolm Brogdon goes down for up to two months with a quad injury.
The last time we saw Parker, he looked like an offensive star. He slashed and slammed his way to a scoring average of 20.1. He did so on career-best efficiency (56.3 true shooting percentage), thriving at the rim and from deep.
(Quick side note: Can we talk about how ridiculous it was for Kidd to effectively issue a “No 3s” rule for Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo? I’m all for playing to your strengths, but there’s obvious value in trying to strengthen your weaknesses. There’s also a balance between taking them within the flow and jacking them up.)
It’s going to take a while for Parker to get back to form. The Bucks will be smart about getting him back into the fold. He’s scheduled to play around 15 minutes in his debut, then see gradual increases moving forward.
Bringing Parker off the bench should be an effective way for him to work some rust off. While he’s a threat off the ball — he ranked in the 70th percentile on cuts last season, via Synergy — he’s best with the ball in his hands. Disrupting a starting lineup that already features three ball-dominant players (Antetokounmpo, Eric Bledsoe and Middleton, to a lesser extent) could be a disaster in the short term (more on that shortly). There’s enough talent to make it work eventually, but it’d be difficult for Parker to get the touches needed to establish a rhythm.
On that front, making sure Parker is surrounded by spacers should be a priority. Second units featuring some combination Middleton, Brogdon (when he returns from his injury) and Tony Snell could be positive. All of those players can spread the floor, which would open up driving lanes for Parker. Middleton and Brogdon are better utilized as spacers or secondary attackers to begin with; Parkers’s ability to create his own shot would take pressure off them:
They’re also plus-defenders who can create turnovers on the other end. Parker was one of the best transition scorers in the league last season (88th percentile), so flanking him with guys who can wreak havoc could lead to highlights like this:
Once Parker gets into the groove and sees his minutes increase, Milwaukee will have to address the small elephant in the room. The fit between Parker and Giannis has always been questionable. For most of their careers, Giannis-with-no-Parker lineups have fared much better than lineups with both players on the court. That’s really when the usage issue pops up; Giannis doesn’t spread the floor at all, and Parker doesn’t scare defenses from the perimeter.
Parker must prove that his shooting stroke from last season wasn’t a fluke. A 36.5 percent clip on decent volume (3.5 attempts) from deep was encouraging, and he doesn’t necessarily need to invoke fear like Stephen Curry does when he’s out there. He does need to be enough of a consistent threat to make opponents feel uncomfortable leaving him.
If he can do that, Milwaukee can comfortably toss out a closing lineup of Bledsoe, Brogdon, Middleton, Parker and Giannis. There are maybe four other teams in the league that can deal with that level of athleticism, versatility, length and shooting — and they’re all contenders. If he can’t, he’ll be on the bench during money time. The future will get a bit murky.
Parker is set to hit restricted free agency this summer. His injury history already complicates matters, and it’ll be hard to justify shelling out a bunch of money to keep him if he can’t mesh with the team’s best player. That decision becomes even tougher once you factor in Middleton and Bledsoe being eligible for extensions next year.
Those questions need to be answered, and soon. For now, though, Milwaukee should be happy to get Parker back. He should make them better … how much better remains to be seen.
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