The Miami Heat (12-15) visit Gainbridge Fieldhouse Monday to battle the Indiana Pacers (14-13). Tip is set for 7 p.m. ET (NBA TV). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Pacers odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
The Heat lost to the San Antonio Spurs 115-111 at home on Saturday, failing to cover as 12.5-point favorites. Miami has not covered in its last 4 games and is just 8-18-1 ATS on the season.
The Heat are also 3-9 straight up on the road. They are led by F Jimmy Butler, who has missed 8 of the last 10 games. He is averaging 21.8 points per game.
The Pacers lost at home to the Brooklyn Nets 136-133 Saturday. They took a 5-point lead into the 4th quarter, but were outscored 41-33 and failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites.
Indiana is 15-12 ATS on the season, but has covered just 4 of its last 10 games. The Pacers sit 7th in points per game at 115.9 and like to push the pace.
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Heat at Pacers odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:28 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Heat -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Pacers +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat -2.5 (-110) | Pacers +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 227.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Heat at Pacers key injuries
Heat
- F Jimmy Butler (knee) probable
- G Tyler Herro (ankle) probable
- G Victor Oladipo (knee) probable
- G Gabe Vincent (knee) out
Pacers
- G Chris Duarte (ankle) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Heat at Pacers picks and predictions
Prediction
Pacers 117, Heat 114
Moneyline
BET PACERS (+120).
The Pacers are 8-5 at home and rank in the top half of the league in offensive rebounding rate (11th) and effective shooting percentage (14th). What they do poorly, defend, Miami may not be able to capitalize on.
Against a team like Indiana, who has C Myles Turner protecting the paint, expect Miami to struggle offensively. The Heat’s offensive rating sits 24th, so keeping up with the high-pace Pacers may be a problem.
Miami has several key players probable as well which could suggest it won’t have them at 100%. Miami’s defense has typically been its bread and butter, but it sits just 13th in defensive rating this season.
Against the spread
PASS.
At these odds, I would prefer to play the money line value, especially given how bad Miami has been on the road.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 227.5 (-115).
The Pacers are 12-14-1 O/U this season. Sitting 4th in the NBA in pace, they are typically getting higher totals, but against the Heat, it fell to a total worth playing.
The Heat have Butler healthy, and his presence should play a factor. Butler has averaged 28 points per game in his last 2, playing 33 minutes per game. In both those games, the Heat went Over the projected total.
Miami is 15-12 O/U this season and have gone over in 6 of its last 9. Given their lacking defense and the presence of a go-to scorer like Butler, back the OVER 227.5 (-115).
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