The Boston Celtics can complete a historic comeback when they host the Miami Heat in Game 7 of the 2023 Eastern Conference finals on Monday night. No team has ever recovered from a 3-0 deficit in an NBA playoff series, but the Celtics rattled off their third straight victory on a buzzer-beating tip-in after blowing a double-digit lead in Game 6 on Saturday. Meanwhile, Miami can make history by joining the 1999 New York Knicks as the only No. 8 seed to make the NBA Finals. Gabe Vincent (ankle) is questionable for Miami, while Malcolm Brogdon (forearm) is questionable for the Celtics.
Tipoff is at 8:30 p.m. ET from TD Garden in Boston. Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as the 7-point home favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 204 in the latest Heat vs. Celtics odds. Before locking in any Celtics vs. Heat picks, you need to see the NBA playoff predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference finals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Celtics and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Celtics vs. Heat:
- Heat vs. Celtics spread: Celtics -7
- Heat vs. Celtics over/under: 204 points
- Heat vs. Celtics money line: Celtics -285, Heat +228
- MIA: The Heat are 21-27-1 against the spread in road games
- BOS: The Celtics are 29-22 against the spread in home games
- Heat vs. Celtics picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Heat can cover
Miami won't be fazed by the atmosphere at TD Garden in Boston. The Heat are 2-1 in the building during the series, scoring more than 1.18 points per possession in those three games. Miami has a stellar 33.6% offensive rebound rate in games played in Boston, and the Celtics are also just 5-5 at home during the postseason. In addition, Miami is well-coached by Erik Spoelstra, and there were positive signs in Game 6 despite the loss.
The Heat committed only five turnovers in the game and were 14 of 30 from 3-point range. Miami struggled mightily inside the arc in a way that isn't indicative of talent deficiency, and the Heat are scoring more than 1.16 points per possession in the playoffs. The Heat are also winning the turnover battle in the series, and Miami has a 30.2% offensive rebound rate against Boston that allows Miami to win the possession battle. See which team to pick here.
Why the Celtics can cover
Miami has seen a 3-0 lead dissipate and has to go on the road for Game 7 on Monday night, making this an incredibly difficult scheduling spot for an underdog. The Heat appeared to have clinched a spot in the NBA Finals before Derrick White's tip-in at the buzzer, giving the Celtics all the momentum in this series. Boston held Miami stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo to a combined 9 of 37 shooting from the floor, as Butler made exactly five field goals for the third time in the series.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both posted double-doubles for Boston, while Marcus Smart added 21 points. Tatum has scored 30 points four times in this series, and he will be comfortable playing at home in front of a raucous crowd. The Celtics are 37-14 at home this season, going 29-22 against the spread. See which team to pick here.
How to make Celtics vs. Heat picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 217 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model's NBA playoff picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Celtics, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics vs. Heat spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is 72-38 on top-rated NBA picks this season.