Game Preview #69: Wolves vs. Nuggets

Does Tuesday’s matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets even really matter?

Should we pay attention, or are we just riding the high from Monday’s 114-104 win over the Utah Jazz, and The Dunk™ ? Yes? Ok, sounds good.

The Wolves head into Tuesday’s battle with their fellow Western Conference ringleader in the Nuggets under less than ideal circumstances.

In a previous life, the Wolves would head into the evening with a leg up in frontcourt size against a Denver team boasting Aaron Gordon and possibly soon-to-be three-time MVP Nikola Jokić. However, with Karl-Anthony Towns out, Rudy Gobert looking like he may miss his third straight game with a rib sprain, and Naz Reid getting banged up with a head injury that caused him to miss the second half of last night’s bout in Salt Lake City, that advantage could potentially turn to a massive disadvantage at the snap of a finger.

Add a rest advantage for Denver team — coming off a buzzer-beater loss in Dallas on Sunday — to the mix as well, and there’s a mighty strong current Minnesota will have to swim against.

Game Info

• Who: Minnesota Timberwolves (47-21) vs Denver Nuggets (47-21)
• When: Tuesday, March 19 at 8:00 PM CT
• Where: Target Center – Minneapolis, Minnesota
• TV: Bally Sports North (Michael Grady and Jim Petersen)
• Radio: Wolves App, iHeart Radio, KFAN 100.3 FM
• Line: Nuggets -7 | Total: 214.5 (courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Injury Report

Updated as of Tuesday, March 19 at 6:30 PM CT

Minnesota:

GAME-TIME DECISION:

• Anthony Edwards (left middle finger dislocation/sprain)
• Rudy Gobert (left rib sprain)

OUT:

• Jaylen Clark (right achilles tendon rupture rehab)
• Naz Reid (head injury)
• Karl-Anthony Towns (left meniscus tear)

Denver:

QUESTIONABLE:

• Zeke Nnaji (low back pain)

OUT:

• Vlatko Čančar (left knee surgery)

What To Watch For

Photo by David Berding/Getty Images

No Bigs, Big Problems?

What the hell are the Wolves going to do to be able to even moderately contain Nikola Jokić and a willing cutter in Aaron Gordon?

With everyone healthy, Karl-Anthony Towns took the Jokić challenge to some success (success is relative across the NBA when it comes to defending the Joker), and Kyle Anderson did as well. But that was with the luxury of Rudy Gobert being a rover in the paint to be able to help when needed.

It poses an interesting question no matter which direction Gobert heads down. If he is indeed out for the contest, does Minnesota go the “death by 1,000 cuts” route and front him with Slow-Mo, with the intention of trying to turn Jokić into a perimeter player? How often would they double at that point, expose cutters and leave open shooters (because everyone knows Jokić will somehow find them)?

If Gobert does indeed suit up and give it a go, does he end up roving on Aaron Gordon and Anderson takes the primary matchup on Jokić so as to limit the damage done to his bruised rim? How are the Gobert and Jokić minutes going to be staggered? How does that impact how often the Anderson-Gobert pairing, which has been largely ineffective on offense, is on the floor together? Do we see Luka Garza attempt to take the task with Gobert on the floor?

Whichever way the “who’s healthy?” pie is sliced, this is easily the single biggest question heading into it. For all I know, a seemingly-non-concussed Naz Reid could end up coming out Royal Rumble-style and pour in 30 points and this could all be moot.

But without Gobert and Towns on the floor this year, the Wolves are rolling with a defensive rating of 112.5. I would expect that to be amplified greatly against a Denver team that is on fire offensively.

Photo by Harry How/Getty Images

Quick Hits

• Chris Finch coached an absolute masterclass in Utah on Monday. The set plays on offense were perfect for getting flow going, and the different looks defensively with a small lineup were just enough. If the bigs aren’t able to roll, that’s where your confidence should lay.
• Speaking of where your confidence should be, we should all be pretty pretty happy that Anthony Edwards is a Minnesota Timberwolf. Name two better individual performances you’ve seen less than a month from each other between the Indiana game on March 7 and Monday night in Utah.
• Jaden McDaniels, someone who we probably all thought would be a beneficiary of Karl-Anthony Towns being out of the lineup, hasn’t scored more than 15 points since March 1 against Sacramento. His last two performances of 15 or more points happened on March 1 and February 15. If winning with Towns out is going to be sustainable, that has to be less infrequent.

Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images

Prop Corner

A couple props I like for Tuesday are below.

All lines, as usual are according to the DraftKings Sportsbook.

THREES: Anthony Edwards o2.5 (+100)

This absolutely stinks of a trap spread. Edwards is traditionally not great in back-to-backs, and fatigue can sometimes lead to him settling for shots and leaving them short. However, I have zero doubts that the volume will be there, and all it takes is one of his trademark scoring explosions and this one cashes at even money. Worth it for me.

POINTS: Aaron Gordon o12.5 (-130)

Typically, I don’t love props at this steep of a value. But a lot of attention is going to be focused on Gordon’s frontcourt partner, and this game feels a lot like one where Jokic is going to be focused on distributing. With that...

ASSISTS: Nikola Jokic o8.5 (+105)