Alperen Sengun’s Injury Hasn’t Grounded the Houston Rockets

The sight of Alperen Sengun being wheeled off the court 10 days ago cast a dark shadow over what has been a resurgent season for the Houston Rockets. Under the guidance of new head coach Ime Udoka and with a revitalized roster of seasoned veterans and burgeoning talent, the Rockets had been riding a wave of optimism. Suddenly, though, it seemed as if those good vibes were over. Just days after he scored a career-high 45 points and posted a triple-double in back-to-back games, Sengun’s breakout season appeared to be over. But the Rockets’ star center was diagnosed with just a Grade 3 ankle sprain after his scary fall, leaving the door open for his return should Houston continue its push for a playoff spot.

Despite the disastrous injury, the Rockets have managed to win four straight since Sengun went down (and six overall), leaving them just 2.5 games shy of the play-in tournament. Even if they come up short, the Rockets (33-35) have made a substantial turnaround from their 22-, 20-, and 17-win seasons in the past three years. Stealing a play-in spot from the Golden State Warriors or Los Angeles Lakers and then securing a playoff berth would be a dream finish to their bounce-back season. But regardless of how the rest of the season plays out, recent trends bode well for Houston’s future.

Jalen Green has looked like an absolute star over his past 10 games, averaging 27.3 points with a 61.2 true shooting percentage, plus six rebounds and only 1.9 turnovers per game. Green just won the NBA’s Player of the Week and followed it up by dropping 42 points against the Washington Wizards on Tuesday night, tying his career high:

Green has been making over 40 percent of his 3s during this stretch, with a large chunk of them coming off the dribble following an array of shifty crossovers. Perhaps his numbers will fall down to earth soon; he’s a career 33.6 percent shooter from 3. But he’s also a near–80 percent shooter from the line, so he could be showing signs of realizing his potential and breaking through. Green’s body type is similar to Malik Monk’s—the latter is an explosive 6-foot-3 guard who made just 32.2 percent of his 3s over his first three seasons and 37.7 percent in the four seasons since. Monk is also a career 84.3 percent shooter from the line, and Green’s soft touch means he will probably improve from that mark in the years to come.

Since being drafted second in 2021, Green has been tremendously streaky. But the 22-year-old is taking full advantage of an uptick in touches this season, a shift that predates Sengun’s injury but has been clearer since. He is shooting jumpers with freedom since Houston needs him to generate points, but despite the flashy plays like the one above, he’s not playing recklessly like he has in the past.

Throughout his young career, Green has lacked a sense for when to go fast and when to slow down. It was as if he was premeditating his move rather than reading a defense and reacting accordingly. But Green has been making 69.2 percent of his unassisted shots in the half-court restricted area over his past 10 games, according to NBA Advanced Stats, which is up from 55.5 percent in the games prior.

Granted, it’s a small sample size, but Green is operating with a newfound feel for tempo that we can see in his calculated attacks, controlled footwork, and smooth body control. He’s also making his teammates better with smart passes, finding his screener on rolls to the basket or drawing two defenders and then locating an open man:

The biggest silver lining of Sengun’s absence is that it has increased the Rockets’ spacing, which has likely contributed to Green’s improved finishing. An elite athlete like Green can soar through the air if there aren’t any bodies in the way. Once Sengun returns, can Green continue this level of production with a playmaking hub at the center position?

Since Sengun’s injury, Houston’s most common lineup has been its new starting five, which features Amen Thompson in place of Sengun as well as Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Fred VanVleet, and Dillon Brooks. In 54 total minutes, the five-man group is posting a 138.4 offensive rating and a 120.4 defensive rating. So while the Rockets aren’t getting a ton of stops with their switch-everything scheme, they are playing fast with space and getting buckets at a blistering rate.

The biggest beneficiary of Sengun’s absence hasn’t been Green, though. It’s been the rookie Thompson, who is playing as Houston’s de facto center. Even though he stands at just 6-foot-7 and weighs 200 pounds, the Rockets now have their 99th-percentile athlete hanging around the dunker spot, looking for lobs and dump-off passes. And he’s being directly involved in more actions, frequently screening for Green or VanVleet and then rolling hard to the basket.

Thompson still can’t reliably shoot jumpers, but Houston is finding ways to get him to produce at an All-Rookie level (he’s averaged 21 points and 9.7 rebounds in his past three games). When Sengun is active, buckets like the one above aren’t available since, like Thompson, he isn’t capable of spacing the floor. It’s critical for one or both of them to develop the ability to shoot 3s so that they can excel together in the years to come.

Sengun was optimized all year, but now Thompson is thriving in a new role. Udoka continues to pull all the right strings and also deserves credit for sticking with Green when there were moments this season when he was downright bad. Green struggled so much that he was reportedly involved in trade talks for Brooklyn’s Mikal Bridges before the deadline. Though Bridges is an elite defender and a quality offensive talent, Houston has to be feeling good about still having Green.

Without Sengun, there’s no incentive for the Rockets to lose since they don’t own their first-round pick (the Thunder have the rights to it). The Rockets do, however, have an unprotected first courtesy of the Nets, who currently have the NBA’s eighth-worst record; that gives Houston a 26.3 percent chance of moving into the top four on lottery night.

The Rockets have had a fairly easy schedule during their six-game winning streak, but two of the wins came against the Kings and Cavaliers. Before things get difficult again, they also have games against the Bulls, Jazz, and Trail Blazers. At 33-35 on the season, could they be .500 or better in a week? Things are trending that way. Aside from Green’s and Thompson’s surges, VanVleet is finally healthy and is shooting the hell out of the ball while running a tight ship. Smith is draining 3s while ripping down nearly 10 rebounds per game and playing versatile defense. And if Smith isn’t out there, Jock Landale is filling in efficiently for Sengun and blocking everything around the rim.

The Rockets own a tiebreaker over the Lakers (3.5 back) but not the Warriors (2.5 back). With only 14 games remaining, they have some work to do to extend their season. But regardless of the final standings, Houston has laid the groundwork to make an even bigger climb in the years to come.