It's Caitlin Clark vs. Angel Reese, Part 4, and this time, the stakes have never been higher. The rookie sensations meet Friday for the final time in the 2024 regular season when the Chicago Sky host the Indiana Fever at Wintrust Arena (7:30 p.m. ET, ION).
If the first three games of this series were any indication, Friday should be tight -- the previous contests were decided by a combined 10 points, with Indiana winning the first two (71-70, 91-83) and Chicago taking the third (88-87).
A lot has also changed for both teams since those three games in June, though: Indiana has found its groove offensively behind its big three of Clark, Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston, and looks poised to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2016. The Fever are 15-16 on the season, just a half-game back of the sixth seed.
Chicago's identity meanwhile has continued to crystallize around rookie bigs Reese and Kamilla Cardoso and guard Chennedy Carter. But the Sky are 1-5 since returning from the Olympic break, putting them 3½ games behind Indiana at 11-19 overall.
If the season ended today, Chicago would be the final team in the playoffs as the eighth seed. With postseason berths on the line, Friday's game will be crucial for both teams but especially the Sky, as after recent win streaks, the Atlanta Dream (10-20), Washington Mystics (9-22) and Dallas Wings (8-22) could vie for the final playoff spot.
Defeating the surging Fever will instill confidence that the Sky are still a playoff team.
Let's break down how the Sky and Fever enter the big matchup and what to expect from both teams.
What's gone wrong with the Sky?
After going into the Olympic break with a resounding win over the Las Vegas Aces, the Sky couldn't return with the same energy and have won just the one game.
Losing top scorer Mabrey to a midseason trade didn't help, and Carter missed the last two games -- and has been ruled out of the game against Indiana -- because of illness. Chicago's minus-8.1 net rating in August ranks 10th in the league; before the Olympics, its net rating was a sixth-place minus-2.6.
Simply put, the Sky need to execute down the stretch of close games. Their past three losses came by a combined eight points.
Head coach Teresa Weatherspoon said after Wednesday's defeat to the Mystics that her team must do the little things right in crucial moments and stay locked in on the scouting report. She preached the need to be consistent defensively and play into that aspect of their identity but also implored her team to "value every freaking possession" on offense after recording 22 turnovers.
Watch the Game Highlights from Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics, 08/28/2024
"Growing pains suck, but it's part of the process," guard Diamond DeShields said. "We have a really young group, and so all we can do is continue to go back to the drawing board with coach, learn from it, watch film, continue to develop, continue to mature and prepare ourselves for the next opportunity, because they'll continue to come and present themselves."
Long-term, Chicago needs Carter back and will need her in top form, and for others to step up, to reverse its losing streak.
"I'm sure she'll be fine," Witherspoon said.
Michaela Onyenwere has had a nice string of offensive games, and the Sky would benefit from her continuing that run, but Rachel Banham, who was acquired in the Mabrey trade, needs to get going from deep. Can Dana Evans carve out a larger role after being replaced in the starting lineup, as well? Any production from the perimeter players will take pressure off and open things up for the rookie bigs.
What's going right?
Reese found her footing first, particularly as she recorded the league's longest double-double streak, but Cardoso has come into her own, too.
Kamila Cardoso rises up and blocks fellow former Gamecock A'ja Wilson for a Sky rejection.
She's averaging 12.2 points per game on 65.3% shooting since the Olympic break. Wednesday, she recorded her fifth double-double, third most for a rookie this summer behind Reese (22) and Clark (10). The game prior, against the Aces, she impressed with five blocks on fellow former Gamecock and MVP front-runner A'ja Wilson.
Carter has proved why she was considered a top talent in the 2020 WNBA draft, most recently by putting up 25 against the Aces and sinking the tying 3-pointer over Jackie Young with 1.1 seconds remaining (Wilson won the Aces the game on the next possession). Since entering the starting lineup in mid-June, Carter is averaging 20.4 points per game (seventh in the league) on 49.1% shooting.
What a shot by Chennedy Carter, 08/25/2024
If there's any consolation for Sky fans, it's that the team has the second-easiest schedule remaining, according to ESPN Analytics. Beyond Friday, games against the Los Angeles Sparks (Sept. 6), Wings (Sept. 8), Mystics (Sept. 11) and Dream (Sept. 17) are must-wins. ESPN Analytics currently gives Chicago a 61.9% chance of making the playoffs, behind Atlanta's 34.4%.
The challenges Indiana will bring to Chicago
Caitlin Clark finds Kelsey Mitchell on the perimeter, and Mitchell sinks a 3-pointer for the Fever.
Since mid-June, Indiana has had the third-best record (trailing only the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx) and the best offense (107.0 offensive rating) in the league. It has been particularly hot since the Olympic break, going 4-1 with wins over the Phoenix Mercury, Seattle Storm, Dream and Connecticut Sun; its 6.7 net rating in August ranks third in the league.
The team's chemistry has only grown since the season began. Clark looks like a maestro conducting the offense and has improved in her ability to get downhill and finish at the rim. Boston is back to her dominant ways, averaging a 16-point double-double since June 13. Mitchell is having one of the best runs in Fever history with five straight 20-point games and is second in the league in scoring post-Olympics (25.6 PPG, 49.5% shooting, 41.7% from 3).
"The maturity and the toughness that my players showed tonight was just incredible," Fever coach Christie Sides said Wednesday after Indiana defeated the Sun for the first time since 2021. "We're watching them grow up, from where we started to where we are now. Connecticut is an incredible team. I'm so proud of these players."
The big picture is even more promising: The Fever's 15 wins are their most since 2016 (17-17), and a .500 or better final record is within reach.
Chicago's defense will have to be more disciplined than it has been in recent weeks if it wants to contain an Indiana offensive unit that has been firing on all cylinders.
Keep an eye on the ROY race
Sky rookie Angel Reese becomes the fastest player in WNBA history to reach 20 double-doubles in a season with a 19-point, 20-rebound effort vs. the Mercury.
Friday's game is another chance to settle the rookie of the year debate. Both players have had historic rookie seasons, but sportsbooks say it isn't much of a race. ESPN BET has Clark at -5000 to win, with Reese at +1800.
After Wednesday, Clark now has 22 games with 15 points and 5 assists, the most in a single season in WNBA history. She also set a rookie record for most 3-pointers in a season (88) while leading the league in assists (8.1 per game) and coming in 10th in scoring (18.0 points per game). No player has ever averaged that stat line in a season before.
Reese, meanwhile, has tied Tina Charles' WNBA rookie double-double record (22) and needs seven more to break the league's single-season record. She had an eye-popping stretch of three consecutive games with 20-plus rebounds, something no other WNBA player had previously achieved. Her current rate (12.9 boards per game) would shatter the league's single-season record.
For as widely successful as their individual rookie seasons have been, Clark and Reese are first and foremost competitors who care about winning. Friday should only add to the budding rivalry.
Other games to watch
Minnesota Lynx at Dallas Wings
Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET (ION)
The 11th-place Wings made things interesting last week, mounting a 22-point comeback win against Los Angeles on Sunday in which they scored 40 points in the fourth quarter. Then, they knocked off the two-time defending champs. Arike Ogunbowale, Satou Sabally and Natasha Howard are averaging over 20 points per game in August -- and looking to take down the red-hot Lynx, winners of seven straight.
Seattle Storm at Connecticut Sun
Sunday at 1 p.m. ET (NBA TV)
These teams last met in June and now face off twice in three days. Seattle has looked shaky since returning from the break, losing three of its past five but pulling out a dub Wednesday against Atlanta. After its first loss to the Fever since July 2021, Connecticut's tough schedule includes three games in four days with a back-to-back Saturday (in D.C) and Sunday at home.