CINCINNATI — The annual Crosstown Shootout between the University of Cincinnati Bearcats and Xavier Musketeers, aka the greatest basketball rivalry game there is (sorry, not sorry Duke-UNC), takes on more importance this year.
Xavier has won the last five Crosstown Shootouts, most in convincing fashion, making it the longest streak for either team since the 1970s when UC won 8 in a row (The Bearcats also won 12 straight in the 50s and 60s).
While UC leads the overall series 51-39, here are the scores of the last five years, with the Muskies on top each time:
2023: 84-79
2022: 80-77
2021: 83-63
2020: 77-69
2019: 73-66
The game in 2022 at Fifth Third Arena was the most interesting of the five, but even then, Xavier never trailed, despite UC tying it with a minute to go. The game ended with free throws after UC called a timeout it didn't have, resulting in a technical. More broadly, Xavier has dominated the 21st century, winning 17 of the 24 matchups since 2000.
This year could mark a turning point in the recent results of the rivalry.
UC has its best team in years, with multiple returning upperclassmen, including six seniors who have developed good chemistry and rhythm with fourth-year head coach Wes Miller. Miller has been able to buck the NIL-transfer trend by keeping many of his players for multiple years.
Xavier also features six seniors in its regular rotation, three of which are transfers that Sean Miller brought in to back-fill a large outgoing transfer class after a disappointing 23-24 season. Sean Miller is in his second stint with the team, and has embraced the NIL-era, speaking openly in the offseason about the work that needs to be done to re-load and level up teams with talent in the transfer portal.
The Bearcats come into the 92nd Crosstown Shootout ranked in the Top 25, and while Xavier had an earlier, brief appearance in the rankings, they've dropped out after losses to Michigan (8-2) and TCU (5-3) on the road. It's worth noting that TCU also lost to Michigan on the road, but the Horned Frogs are undefeated on their home court. Michigan also lost to Wake Forest, who Xavier handled with relative ease in a game at Cintas this season. Michigan's only other loss was a 2-point defeat against John Calipari and the Arkansas Razorbacks.
UC only has one loss so far, which did come in its toughest test on the road against a usually-talented Villanova team that is only 5-4 this season.
Long story short, it's tough to really discern what's a good and bad loss for any of these teams so far.
Statistically, here's how UC and Xavier match up:
Field-goal percentage: Advantage UC
UC is fourth in the entire country at shooting the basketball, with 51.7% shooting so far this season. Xavier is shooting a respectable 47.6%, but not nearly at the elite clip that UC is filling up the bucket.
3-Point shooting: Slight edge to Xavier
Xavier shoots 40% while UC shoots 39%, but XU has taken about 30 more three-point attempts than UC so far this season, adding up to more points on the board from 3. Both XU junior-transfer Ryan Conwell and UC senior-forward Simas Lukosius are top 16 in the country in three-point shooting, with 3.6 and 3.5 three-pointers made per game, respectively, and both at a respectable percentage (44% for Conwell, 52.8% for Lukosius).
Assists: Slight edge to Xavier
XU is averaging just under 19 assists on its baskets per game, 13th in the country overall, and the team makes a point to keep the ball moving on offense. UC isn't far behind, with just under 18 assists per game, good enough for 24th in the country overall.
Turnovers: Advantage UC
The Musketeers have been careless with the ball at times this year, with 11.4 turnovers per game. The Bearcats have handled the ball much better, with just 9.5 turnovers per game.
Defense: Advantage UC
UC has held its opponents to just 58.9 points per game, 8th best in the country. Xavier's opponents have scored 66.7 points per game. The Bearcats have held every team it has played to under its average points per game for the season overall.
Free throws: Advantage Xavier
UC has been terrible at the line this year, which is what many Crosstown Shootouts have come down to. The Bearcats have shot just 59.4% while Xavier has shot a much better 77%.
Strength of Schedule: Draw
Neither team has had a particularly challenging schedule so far, and according to KenPom strength of schedule ratings, Xavier and UC are practically even with respect to the quality of their opponents: Xavier is ranked 334 and UC is ranked 341.
By the numbers, UC is the better team so far, but as we've learned in years past, that doesn't always matter in the Crosstown Shootout. The emotion of the game can get the better of anyone, and the result is just as much about poise and confidence as it is talent.
And for two teams that are both projected to make the NCAA Tournament, this game will matter when the committee is looking at seeding come March.
Tip-off is at 2 p.m. Saturday at Fifth Third Arena. You can watch the game on ESPN+.