Saturday night in Las Vegas has all the potential to provide one of the biggest upsets of 2017. While Rose Namajunas thrilled and shocked fight fans everywhere with her stunning first-round knockout of formerly unbeaten strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Holly Holm can go a long way in leaving her mark with a win over Cris Cyborg at UFC 219.
Holm, the former women's bantamweight champion, is accustomed to being the underdog, despite actually being a betting favorite in all but two fights of her professional MMA career.
"I'm in a place where no one thinks I can do it and there's no possibility for me, but I've been in situations -- four fights --- where I've thought, 'What are you thinking taking this fight?'" Holm said via the L.A. Times this week. "And this is the fifth … ."
Holm opened as a +825 underdog when she took on Ronda Rousey in 2015, and while the odds won't be that bad this time around (she's currently +270 at Bovada), she knows this test will be even more difficult than the one two years ago.
"Here we are again. Bigger, stronger opponent, people asking, 'What are you thinking?'" Holm said. "I know it's a risk. All of them have been. But I've been here before. That alone doesn't guarantee a win, but I know believing in myself has been the biggest thing that has helped me."
Moving up to another weightclass to take on one of the best female fighters ever could lead to some dangerous situations, but if we've learned anything from Holm over the last three years, you can never doubt her determination in the Octagon.
Here's how the rest of the main card shakes out with the latest odds from Bovada.
UFC 219 main card
| Favorite | Underdog | Weightclass |
|---|---|---|
Cris "Cyborg" Justino (c) -360 |
Holly Holm +270 |
Women's featherweight |
Khabib Nurmagomedov -300 |
Edson Barboza +230 |
Lightweight |
Cynthia Calvillo -260 |
Carla Esparza +200 |
Women's strawweight |
Carlos Condit -165 |
Neil Magny +135 |
Welterweight |
| Marc Diakiese -185 | Dan Hooker +150 | Lightweight |
With a big card on tap, our experts took a crack at picking each of the main card fights. Here are your pick makers: Brian Campbell (combat sports writer), Matthew Coca (producer), Michael Mormile (producer), and Brandon Wise (editor).
| Fight | Campbell | Mormile | Coca | Wise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cyborg vs. Holm |
Cyborg |
Cyborg |
Cyborg |
Cyborg |
Khabib vs. Barboza |
Khabib |
Khabib |
Khabib |
Khabib |
Calvillo vs. Esparza |
Calvillo |
Calvillo |
Calvillo |
Calvillo |
Condit vs. Magny |
Magny |
Condit |
Condit |
Magny |
| Diakiese vs. Hooker | Diakiese | Diakiese | Hooker | Diakiese |
| Overall | 18-14-1 | 21-11-1 | 19-13-1 | 19-13-1 |
Campbell on why Cyborg will win: On paper, Holm seems to present the perfect counter balance to Justino's power and aggression thanks to her size and counter striking as a pure boxer. But nothing on paper can prepare one for the reality of Justino's power and aggression, or the fact that Cyborg continues to add nuances of calculated patience to her attack. While Holm made her name by playing matador to Ronda Rousey's reckless attacks in 2015, she has struggled against elite opponents when forced to create offense on her own. For whatever success defensively Holm might have in spurts, it's doubtful she outwork Justino enough to win a decision.
Wise on why Khabib will win: For all the issues Nurmagomedov has dealt with in his career, there have been two constants that keep him whole and undefeated: unrelenting pressure and high-speed wrestling. For someone to conquer the unbeaten Russian, they will need to bring more than just a strong boxing and kickboxing attack. Nurmagomedov is one of the best in the world at neutralizing a standup game by consistently closing off angles and taking the fight to the mat. Barboza may land a couple of nice jabs and hooks, but eventually, Nurmagomedov will take this to the ground and finish things off with a flurry.