After an impressive series against the Boston Red Sox, the Brewers will turn their attention to the rival Chicago Cubs.
It’s slated to be a fascinating matchup between the top two teams in the National League Central. The Cubs got off to a hot start, but they’ve had a rough run with a 9-13 record in May entering play on Sunday. The Cubs and Brewers have already faced off once this season with the Cubs taking a 2-1 victory in the series.
The Cubs' inconsistent offense has been one of the issues plaguing them this season. This month, Chicago has a collective 87 wRC+, according to FanGraphs. The offense has enough talented players that this trend might not continue for too long, but it presents an opportunity for the Brewers to build on their division lead.
One notable player to highlight is shortstop Dansby Swanson. Swanson missed two weeks with an injury after struggling through the first portion of the season. His healthy return would be an incredible boon to the lineup with Swanson already bouncing back in the form of a four-game hitting streak.
Nico Hoerner, Swanson’s double-play partner, is yet another Cub who had a disappointing start to the season. Through the end of April, Hoerner had a .261/.336/.342 (99 wRC+) slash line. His production saw an impressive uptick in May so far, hitting .267/.380/.450 (139 wRC+). The cornerstone players in the Cubs lineup will need to continue this steady improvement to continue being a threat to the Brewers' small lead.
Probable Pitchers
Monday, May 27 @ 3:10 p.m: Robert Gasser (2.65 ERA, 3.13 FIP) vs. Justin Steele (5.68 ERA, 5.22 FIP)
Robert Gasser’s impressive start to his major league career is one of many reasons for optimism in this Brewers season. His production, though, has come in a strange fashion. After striking out over 11 batters per nine innings in Triple-A last season, he has just six strikeouts in 17 innings for Milwaukee. Although it’s an incredibly small sample, his three starts have hinted towards other strengths. He has given up a 19.7% hard-hit rate, according to Baseball Savant, which would rank in the top 1% of pitchers. That outlier performance might not be sustainable, but it points to underlying skills that can help Gasser thrive in the majors.
Justin Steele has had a bumpy start to his season after fighting for Cy Young votes last year. Most of his key metrics have taken a serious downturn, including allowing more home runs, more walks, and striking out fewer hitters. He has allowed at least four runs in three straight starts.
Tuesday, May 28 @ 6:40 p.m: Freddy Peralta (3.81 ERA, 3.44 FIP) vs. Ben Brown (3.20 ERA, 2.64 FIP)
Freddy Peralta will start following his best outing of May. His last time out, he went seven innings against the Marlins while allowing a single run. His signature slider was as deadly as ever as he looks to rebound from a dreadful first appearance against the Cubs this season. Back on May 5, Peralta allowed three runs over five innings, but his six walks allowed was a season high.
An excellent rookie season will be fascinating to follow as Ben Brown’s role changes with the Cubs. He has made seven relief appearances and five starts. His most recent outing was an impressive four-inning shutout against the Braves. He might not be expected to go deep into games, but his early returns have been promising for Chicago.
Wednesday, May 29 @ 6:40 p.m: Bryse Wilson (2.86 ERA, 4.76 FIP) vs. Shota Imanaga (0.84 ERA, 2.19 FIP)
If you take a look at Bryse Wilson’s Baseball Savant page, it doesn’t look like there are particularly impressive tools there. He’s allowed hard contact without compensating with elite strikeouts or a high groundball rate. Yet he has still held batters to a .213 batting average this year while stranding 90.3% of runners. His cutter has been a standout pitch, allowing just a .182 batting average despite being his most used pitch, while also inducing more whiffs than any of his other offerings.
Shota Imanaga has been more than anyone could have expected, even with high expectations. His 0.84 ERA is best among qualified pitchers, which just about explains his performance this season. Batters chase nearly everything Imanaga throws, and yet he still doesn’t hand out walks, despite so many of his splitter offerings dropping out of the zone to tempt hitters. His fastball has been exceptional, as well, allowing just a .164 batting average.
Thursday, May 30 @ 12:10 p.m: TBD vs. Jameson Taillon (2.58 ERA, 4.38 FIP)
Jameson Taillon can be a difficult pitcher to solve. His results haven’t been great over recent seasons, but he is finding more success this season in several key areas. Batters are grounding into more outs while hitting the ball with softer contact. His cutter and sweeper have been his best pitches this season, with a +3 run value according to Baseball Savant. He might not be an elite pitcher, but he can run into some hot streaks as he did over his first four starts of the season with a 1.13 ERA. Since then, he has a 5.02 ERA in three starts.
Prediction
The Brewers offense is more convincing right now than the Chicago Cubs. Both pitching staffs have an interesting toolbox available to them, including big names like Peralta, Steele, and newcomer Imanaga. Both offenses have proven capable of being shut down by an opposing staff, so if the Brewers can’t build some offensive momentum, it could result in a tense matchup focused on pitching duels. There are still enough weaknesses in the Cubs staff, though, that the Brewers should be able to punch through for at least a series split.