Welcome to The Pressure List, where MMA Junkie senior reporter Mike Bohn examines which fighters have the most at stake going into numbered UFC events, which frequently feature the most high-profile names and significant fights in the sport.
The series returns ahead of Saturday’s UFC 303, which takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas and features a light heavyweight title headliner between Alex Pereira (10-1 MMA, 7-1 UFC) and Jiri Prochazka (30-4-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC), as well as a number of other notable matchups.
Everyone who steps into the octagon is fighting for something, but for the five names below, they are under the most duress to get the job done.
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5
Michael Page
Michael Page
Michael Page has talked a big game since signing with the UFC and making a successful debut against Kevin Holland in March. He needs to get through Ian Machado Garry if he wants to back any of it up.
“Venom” has already shown people he’s worthy of this stage with an octagon win over a quality foe in Holland, but his dreams are much bigger than that. Page (22-2 MMA, 1-0 UFC) has talked about getting a fight with former longtime champ Kamaru Usman if he wins this weekend. He’s also forecasted a megafight in a U.K. stadium vs. current welterweight titleholder Leon Edwards if they both keep winning.
All those ideas sound fantastic, but none of them happen if he doesn’t beat Garry, and do it in an entertaining manner. At 37, “MVP” isn’t going to have many chances to reset off a UFC loss. This is his best chance to get thrust to the top by capitalizing on the intrigue and excitement around his name as a fresh face in UFC, so he’s got to get this one done.
4
Brian Ortega
Brian Ortega
Initially, I had Brian Ortega higher on this list going into his co-main event showdown with Diego Lopes, which came together on 17 days’ notice. However, after my recent interview with “T-City,” my perspective on what this fight means to his career has somewhat changed.
Ortega’s (16-3 MMA, 8-3 UFC) revelation that he’d already accepted a move to the lightweight division prior to this short-notice opportunity, as well as his explanation of why he still intends to move up from his longtime home at featherweight, makes me feel like this fight doesn’t have quite the same impact.
If he’s going to be making a fresh start regardless, then Ortega’s place at 145 pounds is moot. Of course it would be better to take the momentum of a victory into a new division opposed to a loss, but originally it seemed like he was taking the risk of fighting way down in the rankings against Lopes, and that could forever kill his title hopes in the division.
It seems Ortega is already convinced those title hopes are dead, so this situation becomes less stressful for him.
3
Alex Pereira
Alex Pereira
How is Alex Pereira, the reigning and defending champion who is putting his belt on the line against an opponent he’s already beaten on extremely short notice, not in the No. 1 spot on this list? Allow me to explain.
I would be quite surprised if Pereira (10-2 MMA, 7-1 UFC) weren’t guaranteed an immediate trilogy fight with Prochazka for stepping up under these circumstances, should the result not go his way. The UFC refuses to acknowledge Magomed Ankalaev with a title shot and Jamahal Hill could be out for a while with injuries, so there’s nothing else interesting happening in this division.
Given he was in Australia doing seminars and vacationing when he got the call, and his toes still apparently banged up from the aftermath of his UFC 300 main event win, Pereira has all sorts of build-in excuses if this fight doesn’t go his way.
The Brazilian is so beloved that I doubt the MMA community would turn on him if he used those excuses to his favor in the aftermath of a potential defeat.
2
Ian Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry
In a similar vein to what was said about his opponent Page above, the talking that has come from Ian Machado Garry leading into fight night puts a tremendous burden on his shoulders to deliver a win.
Garry (14-0 MMA, 7-0 UFC) will not hesitate for a second to tell you that he isn’t keen on fighting “MVP.” He wanted a higher-ranked opponent, and only agreed to the matchup between it would’ve placed him on the same card as his idol Conor McGregor. We all know that’s no longer happening, so it’s easy to question what Garry’s motivation looks like.
Additionally, Garry is outright dismissive of Page as a threatening opponent. Garry has reiterated over and over that he doesn’t think Page is on his level in terms of skills, and has promised a one-sided, destructive performance when they step into the cage.
With the amount of bravado he’s spoken with, including in my interview with him a few days ago, anything other than delivering on his promises will be met with frustration from fans. And if Garry managed to lose this fight, the backlash to dropping his undefeated record will reach a fever pitch for the outspoken Irishman.
1
Jiri Prochazka
Jiri Prochazka
Usually the champion has more pressure than the challenger coming into a title fight, but in my opinion, that’s not the case for Jiri Prochazka entering his rematch with Pereira.
I explained above how Pereira has some built-in excuses with a defeat. Prochazka (30-4-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC) has much less of that going in his favor, even despite the short-notice nature of this situation.
According to Prochazka, he’d agreed to the rematch and started to mentally prepare roughly a week prior to Pereira accepting. The former titleholder considers himself a samurai and true warrior, and said it’s his philosophy to always keep in good shape and be ready for these types of opportunities.
My overall vibe is that Prochazka is more ready for this, so if he loses, it’s not going to be great for him. Going 0-2 in head-to-head matchups with Pereira would essentially disqualify him from the title picture unless Pereira is no longer champion, and that’s a scary spot to be in.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 303.