Leicester City had one of its most encouraging performances of the season in a 1-1 draw at Manchester United on April 2, in a match that it easily could have won without a few controversial decisions going against it. Next up for Leicester is a return to King Power Stadium on Sunday to face Crystal Palace, which on Monday dominated London rival Arsenal in a 3-0 rout at Selhurst Park.
Palace has a real chance at a top-half finish with a strong end to the campaign in the final eight matches. At this point, it would be deserved given the Eagles have a positive goal and expected goal differences. They have been the considerably better side, and though they’re on the road, they’e not getting enough respect in the betting market.
Crystal Palace has been dramatically better at home than on the road when you look at the underlying numbers. Leicester’s home splits, however, also aren’t particularly impressive. Leicester is allowing 1.67 xGA at home, but has conceded just 1.14 goals per match. Palace can take advantage of its defensive lapses and won’t succumb to Leicester’s attempt to produce high turnovers.
My projection makes Leicester City just a slight favorite of -105 odds on the Draw No Bet wager. The market is showing plenty of respect to the Foxes’ recent form, but the Eagles have been the better team most of the season and can be effective playing without the ball.
The play: Crystal Palace — Draw No Bet (+110 or better)