James Maddison is the shock presence in Gareth Southgate's England squad, three years after winning his only cap, with places found in the Three Lions' 26-man party for Marcus Rashford, Callum Wilson and Ben White.
Maddison has excelled at club level in 2022, his 22 goal involvements in the Premier League bettered only by Harry Kane, Kevin De Bruyne and Heung-min Son, but he has struggled to win the trust of Southgate since withdrawing from the England squad in 2019 due to illness. He was subsequently pictured in a casino. However, his rich form made him the cause célèbre of the English game and he takes a spot in the squad that might otherwise have gone to Jadon Sancho and Jarrod Bowen.
"He is playing really well," said Southgate. "He's a good player, we've always said he is. He has earned the right and we think he can give us something slightly different to the other attacking players we have.
"At various stages, there have been debates about James, ahead of the Euros I don't think he was in contention. September was probably a fair debate, I think he is playing as well as any of the attacking players in this country."
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Asked to reflect on the casino incident, Southgate added: "That was unfortunate for his perspective because it became a bigger issue for him than me... For me that wasn't the drama it seemed to be for everyone else. He's always been up against really good players in his area of the pitch."
Wilson and Rashford, whose form has improved significantly with Manchester United under Erik ten Hag, will be tasked with providing support for Kane and may see the pitch infrequently at best. More intriguing might be the presence of Ben White, who could be called upon to cover for Kyle Walker, who is named in the squad having undergone groin surgery in early October. Southgate did not rule out either Walker or Kalvin Phillips from contention for the opening game. Reece James fell short in his attempts to overcome a knee injury, meaning spots in the squad for Trent Alexander-Arnold and Kieran Trippier, who could be asked to fill in at left-back with Luke Shaw the only natural player in that position.
Southgate has steered clear of several options in Serie A, most notably AC Milan center back Fikayo Tomori and Roma's Tammy Abraham, a regular in squads leading up to the tournament.
"Tammy's had a poor run of scoring form at the wrong time really. We're not three, four weeks from a final, we're 10 days. Form could be more important," he said.
England squad in full
Goalkeepers: Jordan Pickford (Everton), Nick Pope (Newcastle), Aaron Ramsdale (Arsenal)
Defenders: Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool), Conor Coady (Everton), Eric Dier (Tottenham), Harry Maguire (Manchester United), Luke Shaw (Manchester United), John Stones (Manchester City), Kieran Trippier (Newcastle), Kyle Walker (Manchester City), Ben White (Arsenal)
Midfielders: Jude Bellingham (Borussia Dortmund), Conor Gallagher (Chelsea), Jordan Henderson (Liverpool), Mason Mount (Chelsea), Kalvin Phillips (Manchester City), Declan Rice (West Ham)
Forwards: Phil Foden (Manchester City), Jack Grealish (Manchester City), Harry Kane (Tottenham), James Maddison (Leicester), Marcus Rashford (Manchester United), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal), Raheem Sterling (Chelsea), Callum Wilson (Newcastle)
Let the center back discourse begin
It has often been said over recent months that England's great weakness lies at the heart of its defense. That is not entirely true, there are a host of Premier League regulars who will not be on the plane to Qatar -- plenty of them are in excellent form -- but the question that hung over Gareth Southgate's selection was whether he would trust proven performers on the international stage over the intoxicating promise of young talent.
Emphatically, it was the former that won the day. Tomori, named in last season's Serie A team of the year, paid the price for a slight downturn in form with AC Milan this term, most notably in his side's Champions League defeats to Chelsea. Marc Guehi will not get a chance to add to his three caps, the most recent of which came in the 4-0 Nations League defeat to Hungary that left such scares over England.
Instead, steady contributors including Eric Dier and Harry Maguire make the squad, to the chagrin of many, particularly in the case of the latter. Undoubtedly he has not done enough with Manchester United to earn his spot among the 26. He has scarcely played for them under Erik ten Hag. However, put Maguire on the left side of a back three in a team that is prepared to defend in a mid-block and he tends to be a dramatically more effective performer.
"We've picked our more experienced defenders," said Southgate. "The younger ones have got some really good qualities but we don't think they've done quite enough to push them out.
"[Maguire] is one of our best center backs. Within the squad we know we have a lot of players who have been to tournaments, performed at the level and know what's required."
The presence of John Stones and Kyle Walker in the squad means Southgate can revive the back three that has been so effective in tournaments so far. Eric Dier is a natural alternative to anchor the center of the trio whilst Ben White, the best English defender in the Premier League this season, can be the hybrid center and full back he is on occasion with Arsenal.
Crucially they all know what it is like to go to a major tournament with England. The same is true of Conor Coady, a player who seems to relish a non-playing role with the Three Lions. When you aspire to be in Qatar until the very end perhaps that matters more than people appreciate.
Wilson wins the striker race
No one is in any doubt that Kane, Golden Boot winner at the last tournament, will lead the line for England in Qatar. So long as he is fit he will presumably start every game barring any group stage dead rubbers. That led to the question of what Southgate might want in reserve: a like-for-like replacement, a potential partner or a wildcard option that offers something completely different? Wilson perhaps falls into the middle of those categories and earns his place as reward for an outstanding run of form with Newcastle in recent weeks.
Six Premier League goals place Wilson third among Englishman in the scoring charts; he might be higher if he had not missed four games with a hamstring injury. Indeed the 30-year-old ranks third for non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per 90 this season, trailing only Darwin Nunez and Erling Haaland. He also averages the highest npxG per shot among top flight strikers and is fourth for set piece xG. In short, he profiles as a shrewd penalty box poacher who tends to snaffle the chances that come his way. Given that England's second-choice center forward is often going to be a break glass in case of emergency option, a finisher first and foremost is no bad option. Ivan Toney might have cause to feel aggrieved -- he can do many of the same things, has eight Premier League goals and is the archetype of the big man you throw on late in tournament games -- but it would have been tough to say no to Wilson.
Predicting the starting XI
Southgate has used the months since England's run to the Euro 2020 final to experiment with a back four but a string of false starts saw him gravitate back to a 3-4-3, the system that carried them so far in past tournaments. The profile of this squad, with spaces made available for players such as Dier and Coady that regularly play in back threes at club level, would suggest that the Three Lions will line up with wing backs more often than not. Indeed it feels like a near certainty that they will do so in the knockout stages.
Most of the players would then pick themselves. Once Walker is fit he figures to usurp White in the starting XI. Kieran Trippier has form and Southgate's preferences on his side whilst Jude Bellingham performed so well alongside Declan Rice in the Nations League that he promises to beat Phillips to a starting berth. Raheem Sterling might have work to do to if he is to retain his spot after a slow start to life at Chelsea but he is another trusted lieutenant. That means one spot for Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka to fight over, quite the welcome headache for the Three Lions. As someone who regularly translates his club form to the international stage, the Arsenal man might just be the one to win the day.
Predicted XI: Pickford; Walker, Stones, Maguire; Trippier, Rice, Bellingham, Shaw; Saka, Kane, Sterling.