An hour of sleep isn't the only thing we're losing this weekend. We've reached the time of the year when leagues enter the final third of the season. It's not quite the home stretch, but you can see it coming around the corner.
That means it's more difficult to bet successfully. At least, that's been the case traditionally. As the year goes on, and we get through the transfer windows, the market settles, and books tend to get a bit wiser about what teams are capable of on a weekly basis. As a result, it becomes more difficult to find value.
At least, that's what usually happens. Corner Picks is having a fantastic season, and I expect regression at some point, but this isn't my way of preparing you for the fall. No, it's the opposite. I'm optimistic. There isn't supposed to be as much value at this time of year, but I keep finding plenty of it. All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Napoli vs. Atalanta
Date: Saturday, March 11 | Time: 12 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+
Napoli did something last weekend they haven't done often this season, they lost a Serie A match. Napoli's 1-0 loss to Lazio was only its second loss in league play, so it didn't mean much in the standings. Napoli still hold a 15-point lead on Inter, and it's only a matter of time until they win the Scudetto. However, it was a misleading loss. While Lazio did a terrific job of stopping Napoli's attack, holding them to 0.8 expected goals (xG), Napoli's defending was still tremendous as well. Lazio finished with 0.2 xG, and their lone goal came on a laser from outside the box. It was their only real chance of the match, and it wasn't a great chance.
That defending will still be a key part of the Napoli does this week, and they're facing an Atalanta team slipping further away from the top four every week. Atalanta have won only one of their last six and have struggled to score in that time. They've been solid defensively, though, and will likely try to mirror what Lazio did last week to frustrate Napoli. I like Napoli to win, but not as much as I like this to be a low-scoring affair. The Pick: Under 2.5 (+105)
West Ham United vs. Aston Villa
Date: Sunday, March 12 | Time: 10 a.m. ET | Watch: USA
I'll start by saying I don't think West Ham will be relegated. They're in the thick of the battle right now, but compared to the other teams they're battling against, this roster seems too talented to finish in the bottom three. That said, this is not a great team, and they could be somewhat tired this weekend. West Ham are in that rare spot of fighting to avoid relegation while also playing in Europe. After getting smacked around 4-0 at Brighton last weekend, the Hammers made the trip to Cyprus on Thursday to face Larnaka in the Europa Conference League. The good news is West Ham took an early 2-0 lead, which allowed them to coast for much of the match, but they still had to travel and will be playing their fourth match in 11 days. The first three were all away from home.
Back in London, they'll find an Aston Villa team that's been much better under Unai Emery than it was under Steven Gerrard. In fact, if the Premier League season began when Emery was appointed, Villa would be in fifth place instead of 11th. Villa have lost only four Premier League matches under Emery, and three of those four were against Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal. Outside a loss to Leicester City, they've looked strong against teams outside the top six of the league. I don't usually take underdogs this big in the column, but Aston Villa shouldn't be this big of a dog. Not with fresh legs against a West Ham team that's been forced to play a lot lately. The Pick: Aston Villa (+230)
Freiburg vs. Hoffenheim
Date: Sunday, March 12 | Time: 10:30 a.m. ET | Watch: ESPN+
I don't include them here nearly as often as I should, but one of the best ways to make money betting soccer is to find at least one Bundesliga match every week where the total is 2.5 and take the over. There have been 3.16 goals scored per match in the league, and no team in the league averages fewer than 2.5 goals per match (Schalke are the lowest at 2.61). That can sometimes make it more difficult to bet on winners and losers, but the totals are a goldmine.
Of our Bundesliga options this weekend, this is the most enticing. Freiburg is having another excellent season, and while they're not one of the league's highest-scoring teams, they makes up for it by allowing more goals than the other top teams do! That said, they've been much better defensively at home, but they've been better in attack too. They average 1.92 xG per match at home compared to 1.06 on the road, and they're facing a Hoffenheim team that's fighting for survival and have been terrible defensively on the road (1.74 xG allowed). There's a decent chance Freiburg scores three themselves, but Hoffenheim ranks eighth in the league in xG this season also, so we shouldn't overlook their ability to find the back of the net either. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-130)
Weekend Parlay
This week's parlay pays +211.
- Real Madrid (-400)
- Manchester United (-295)
- Juventus (-300)
- Marseille (-255)
Record |
Units |
|
League Play |
47-37 |
+17.56 |
Champions League |
7-5 |
+2.11 |
| Overall | 54-42 | +19.67 |