Buffalo, N.Y. (WGR 550) - I was completely convinced the Buffalo Sabres' playoff drought was going to end at the start of this season.
It did not.
Instead of participating in the postseason for the first time since 2011, the blue and gold extended its NHL record for most consecutive seasons without a berth in the Stanley Cup Playoffs to 13.
Teams aren't supposed to go this long without a postseason appearance. Then again, who thought the Buffalo Bills would go 17 seasons without a playoff game to their credit.
One year ago, the Sabres came so close. They finished the 2022-23 season with 91 points, leaving them one point behind the Florida Panthers, who claimed the second Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. Florida then went on their memorable run to the Stanley Cup Final, where they eventually lost to the Vegas Golden Knights.
It won't be as close this season for the Sabres, who ended with 84 points after Monday night's win over the Tampa Bay Lightning.
That step back has now cost Don Granato his job as head coach.
I thought this was a distinct possibility, but when the Sabres announced Granato would do his end of season media session later this week, I figured owner Terry Pegula didn't want to, yet again, pay someone to not coach for him.
The move makes sense. I just don't know how the Sabres could have sold the fan base on another season with Granato behind the bench and Kevyn Adams calling the shots at general manager.
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So what went wrong?
In a nutshell, the offense wasn't as good, especially the power play. Buffalo's power play unit went from middle of the pack last season (ranked 17th overall) to near the bottom of the league this season (28th overall).
There were too many slow starts to games, as the Sabres accounted for the worst goal differential in the first period this year. It felt like every other game the Sabres were down two goals after the first period and had to play catch up.
The Sabres didn't play their best hockey of the season until the first of the year.
From opening night to Dec. 31, the Sabres went just 15-19-4 for a points percentage of .447. From Jan. 1 through the season finale against Tampa Bay, the Sabres went 24-18-2 for a much better percentage of .568.
Do that over the whole season and the drought would have ended this year.
The New York Islanders, who clinched a playoff berth Monday night with a win over the New Jersey Devils, are gaining points at a .568 clip.
The Sabres just weren't good enough to sustain winning. Their longest win streak of the season was three games, and they managed that just two times. The first such three-game winning streak for the Sabres didn't come until February.
Excluding the pair of three-game win streaks, the Sabres managed to win back-to-back games on just five occasions throughout the rest of the season.
One of Granato's main points this season was to improve the team's defensive performances. That did, indeed, happen, as the Sabres went from 23rd in the league in goals-against per-game last season up to 11th this season.
The goaltending was significantly better as part of that jump this year. The Sabres' save percentage ranking went from 23rd a year ago up to 14th. They shaved 56 goals from their total last year, which was 300.
However, that commitment to improving the defense seems to have hurt their offense.
Their 246 goals scored this year is 50 fewer than last season when Granato's club ranked 12th in goals per-game. They dropped down to 22nd this season.
As mentioned earlier, the power play was a big part of that, but 5-on-5 scoring took a step back as well. A number of key players saw their stats fall significantly from a year ago:
- Tage Thompson did miss 11 games and played injured through a number of other contests. but he scored 18 fewer goals and had 38 fewer points during the 2023-24 campaign.
- Alex Tuch's points total went from 79 to 59.
- Jeff Skinner, who played in five fewer games than last season, saw his total points nose dive from 82 to 46.
- Dylan Cozens had a breakthrough campaign during the 2022-23 season with 31 goals and 68 points. His final numbers this season were 18 goals and 47 points.
I'll save you the math by telling you those four players combined for 56 fewer goals and 115 less points compared to a year ago.
Last season, the Sabres had a 40-goal scorer (Thompson) and three 30-goal scorers (Tuch, Skinner, Cozens). This season saw them produce five 20-goal scorers.
Tuch and Rasmus Dahlin finished tied for the team lead this season with just 59 points. That would have been the sixth-best point total last season when Thompson led the group with 94.
So... now what?
In addition to finding the right head coach, Adams has to make the roster better.
The goaltending appears to be in good shape with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Devon Levi. The top-four on defense also seems to be set, although they need Mattias Samuelsson to make it through a season healthy.
That means Adams has to improve the forward ranks, and find more scoring.
Remember, they did trade Casey Mittelstadt as part of the deal to acquire Bowen Byram. Mittelstadt was Buffalo's leading scorer at the time of the trade, but the trade did add another piece to improve their defense corps.
I doubt any move(s) to bolster the forward ranks will come with a significant free agent pickup. It's time for the Sabres general manager to use his deep pool of young talent - including players here, in Rochester and elsewhere - along with draft picks to find some proven NHL scoring.
With Granato being fired, it sure feels like Adams will now face a "get us into the playoffs next season, or else" scenario.
