Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The Edmonton Oilers are in deep trouble in a playoff series they were expected to win.
After losing Games 4 and 5, the Oilers now trail the Kings, 3-2, as the best-of-seven series shifts back to Los Angeles for an elimination game. It was not supposed to be like this — these Oilers were supposed to be different — but here we are. The vultures are circling.
What’s most discouraging for the Oilers is that a lot of the strong predictive metrics they were posting in the second half of the regular season have vanished.
The Kings and Oilers have split the goals at 5-on-5, while the expected goals and high-danger scoring chances only slightly favor the Oilers. It has been an impressive showing from a scrappy underdog.
And while it’s hard not to get caught up in the way Los Angeles has performed, the big picture for Edmonton is still hard to ignore. The Oilers played at a 119-point pace in 38 games under new head coach Jay Woodcroft and their underlying metrics were superb.
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The fangs will be out if Edmonton loses Game 6 and bows out of the postseason in unceremonious fashion once again, but bettors should do their best to avoid getting caught up in that hype. Trust the long-term form of the Oilers to come back and take this series in seven.
The play: Oilers to win the series, +150