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The Yankees possess the best record in the MLB at 26-9 and won 6-2 against the Baltimore Orioles on Monday night. Jameson Taillon starts for New York, and Spenser Watkins starts for Baltimore in the second game of the series tonight. The Yanks have been much better than the O’s this season so let’s look at the odds for Tuesday’s matchup.
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles odds
The Yankees are big favorites in Tuesday’s matchup and are -225 on the money line, while the Orioles are +180 on the money line. The run line for the Yanks (-1.5) has odds of -135, while the Orioles run line (+1.5) has odds of +110. The total (over/under) is 8, and the over is slightly favored with -120 odds, while the under has odds of +100. With such a difference in money line odds, let’s see what our experts predict for Tuesday’s matchup.
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New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles run line prediction: Yankees -1.5 (-125)
The New York Yankees have the MLB’s best record (26-9), but two of those losses came in a three-game series against Baltimore in April. The Yankees have already had a shot at redemption and swept the O’s in a series two weeks later. Before this series, the Orioles were swept by the Detroit Tigers, who have scored the fewest runs in MLB. It will be a night-and-day change for Baltimore this week because the Yankees post the third-most runs per game in baseball with 4.94 runs per game.
New York won’t have their ace Gerrit Cole or red-hot Nestor Cortes starting, but Jameson Taillon has been impressive to start the season. The right-handed pitcher posts a 2.93 ERA and hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a start this season. Baltimore counters with Spenser Watkins, and his performance has not been as pretty. Watkins is 0-1 with a 5.19 ERA and allowed seven earned runs in 3.2 innings against the St. Louis Cardinals in his last start. It could be a long day for Watkins as this New York lineup has been on fire.
Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have lived up to expectations, while Anthony Rizzo presents another bat that teams cannot pitch around. One of the few weaknesses of New York’s lineup is their strikeout rate, but Watkins may not have the stuff to get pitches by them. He has failed to strike out more than three hitters in any of his starts, and this could lead to a long day against the Yankees. Therefore, we predict that the Yankees will cover the run line and win by two runs or more against the Baltimore Orioles.
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles total over/under prediction: Over 8 (-120)
The Orioles haven’t produced much at the plate this season, but they still have the potential to contribute to this total. Leadoff hitter Cedric Mullins will need to get on base early, and their power hitters Trey Mancini and Ryan Mountcastle can drive him home. Although Baltimore averages just 3.22 runs per game, they are more efficient at home and average 3.65 runs per game at Camden Yards. If the Orioles can score two to three runs, we predict that the Yankees can take care of the rest.
Judge and Stanton have combined for 22 home runs this season and are two of the hottest bats in the MLB this month. Judge is in the top five of the MLB in OPS this month, while Stanton has the second-most RBIs in the league (32). In the last series between teams, the total reached 20 runs and 15 runs in two of the three games. We expect both teams’ bats will get going today, and predict that the total will go over 8 runs in the Yankees and Orioles game on Tuesday night.
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