The final round of Euro 2024 group stage games is upon us, meaning we can finally enjoy the one reason we all love this crazy little thing called football: exceedingly complex qualification permutations. And boy is Group E serving headache-inducing, numbers flying around your brain realness.
Currently the table is topped by Romania, leading the way on three points. In fourth place is Ukraine, also on three points. The dividing factors between the quartet, rounded out by Belgium and Slovakia, are goal difference and goals scored. Romania's big win over the Ukrainians puts them top for now but the complications are only just beginning.
Group E outlook
| Rank | Team | W | D | L | For | Against | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Romania |
1 |
0 |
1 |
3 | 2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
Belgium |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 | 1 | 1 |
3 |
3 |
Slovakia |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 | 2 | 0 |
3 |
4 |
Ukraine |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 | 4 | -2 |
3 |
Matchday three fixtures
- Slovakia vs. Romania
- Ukraine vs. Belgium
Everything could be thrown into a quagmire of complexities if both games on Wednesday end in draws. In that scenario every team would have four points, a disastrous state of affairs for Ukraine, who would crash out by virtue of goal difference. This would also be the case if more goals are scored in the Slovakia vs. Romania game. In that instance the group would remain in the same order that it is now, Romania and Belgium guaranteed qualification, Slovakia in the mix for one of the four spots in the last 16 afforded to teams who finish third in the group stage game. They would likely get that too, but those weeds are ones we ought to step clear of for now.
Where things get very fun/perverse is if the draw in Ukraine vs. Belgium involves the latter scoring one more goal than Romania. Say, for instance, Romania and Slovakia play out a 1-1 draw and Belgium and Ukraine end at 2-2. Both sides would then be equal on points, goal difference and goals scored. Slovakia would lock up third on goal difference, Ukraine fourth. Now we're right in the midst of the subclauses of the European Championships regulations. It's 20.01d to be precise.
In this specific scenario all three of those separating criteria mentioned above would be applied to the specific head to head between Belgium and Romania, for whom there is no other separating factor. In that instance the Red Devils 2-0 win last time out would mean that they claim top spot, Romania second. Meanwhile if both games are drawn but Belgium draw but score two or more goals more than Romania then they will claim top spot on goals scored.
There is of course a simple way for all four teams to avoid these permutations. Win their remaining game and they are through.
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