The Dallas Mavericks welcome the Brooklyn Nets to town for a nationally televised tilt on Tuesday evening. Dallas is 11-11 this season, with Brooklyn entering at 16-7 overall and 8-2 in road games. Kyrie Irving (not with team) and Joe Harris (ankle) remain sidelined for the Nets. Luka Doncic (thumb), Kristaps Porzingis (knee) and Tim Hardaway Jr. (knee) are listed as probable for the Mavericks.
Brooklyn is listed as a four-point road favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 219 in the latest odds. Before making any Nets vs. Mavericks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 8 of the 2021-22 NBA season up almost $2,000 on all top-rated NBA picks this season. It's also on a stunning 121-78 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread that dates back to last season. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Nets vs. Mavs and just locked in its NBA picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see the model's picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Mavs vs. Nets.
- Nets vs. Mavericks spread: Nets -4
- Nets vs. Mavericks over-under: 219 points
- BKN: The Nets are 8-14-1 against the spread in 2021-22
- DAL: The Mavericks are 9-13 against the spread this season
Why the Nets can cover
Brooklyn is playing quite well on defense this season, but the Nets are still keyed by offense and a pair of superstars. Kevin Durant is an MVP candidate this season, averaging 28.6 points, 7.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game while posting a 63.4 percent true shooting mark. He is flanked by James Harden, with the former MVP averaging 20.6 points, 9.5 assists and 7.9 rebounds per game for the season. The Nets are scoring more than 1.09 points per possession, with top-eight marks in field goal shooting, three-point shooting, free throw volume and free throw accuracy.
Brooklyn shares the ball effectively, averaging 25.5 assists per game, and the Nets are above-average in ball security, committing only 13.9 turnovers per game. Dallas is No. 25 in the league in shooting efficiency allowed on defense, and Brooklyn should be able to produce a quality shot mix in this matchup.
Why the Mavericks can cover
Ball security is paramount for the Mavericks, and that allows Jason Kidd's team to flourish and maximize possessions. Dallas is No. 3 in the NBA in turnovers, committing only 12.3 giveaways per game. The Mavericks are also elite at avoiding live-ball turnovers, with opponents generating a league-low 6.5 steals per game against Dallas. The Mavericks are averaging 1.83 assists for every turnover, a top-eight mark in the NBA, and Dallas is connecting on 13.0 3-pointers per game. Brooklyn is No. 25 in the NBA in turnover creation and No. 22 in the NBA in defensive rebound rate.
On the opposite side, the Mavericks are very good at limiting free-throw attempts, with opponents taking only 19.1 shots per game at the charity stripe. Dallas is also above-average on the defensive glass, pulling down 73.5 percent of available rebounds after forcing a missed shot. Brooklyn is dead-last in the NBA in offensive rebound rate (22.6 percent), and second-chance points should be at a premium for the Nets.
How to make Mavericks vs. Nets picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, with the teams projected to combine for 222 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Nets vs. Mavs? And which side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.