The Premier League season is almost over, and the race for a place in Europe is reaching its climax.
We take a look at who is in contention to qualify for the Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League, how the FA Cup could affect it and what impact an English team winning a European trophy could have.
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This page will be updated through the remainder of the season as the permutations develop.
How many teams qualify for Europe?
The maximum that can qualify from domestic performance in the Premier League -- so either by league position or by winning the FA Cup or Carabao Cup -- is seven.
However, the places reserved for European titleholders are separate if a team does not qualify domestically. Therefore, it is technically possible, though unlikely, for the Premier League to have 10 teams in Europe -- the seven domestic qualifiers plus the winners of the Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League if they are outside the European places.
With West Ham United in final of the Europa Conference League and unable to finish in the European places in the Premier League, it is possible that eight English teams could take part next season.
Which Premier League places will qualify?
At the start of the season, the top four in the Premier League qualify for the Champions League, while fifth place and the FA Cup winners enter the Europa League. The winners of the Carabao Cup qualify for the Europa Conference League.
Manchester United won the Carabao Cup, so they were guaranteed (at minimum) a place in the Europa Conference League. However, Manchester United will play Manchester City in the FA Cup final, and both clubs are sure to finish in the top six of the Premier League. This means that the places reserved for the domestic cups transfer to the league, and seventh is guaranteed to earn a place in the UEFA Conference League.
Man City, Arsenal and Newcastle are guaranteed Champions League.
Liverpool and Man United will get (at minimum) a place in the Europa League.
Brighton are guaranteed a place in Europe, in either the Europa League or the Europa Conference League.
Allocation as it stands:
Champions League: Arsenal, Manchester City, Newcastle United, 4
Europa League: 5, 6
Europa Conference League: 7
Who is in contention for Europe?
Manchester City (88 points, 36 games), Arsenal (81, 37 games) and Newcastle United (70, 37 games) are sure of a place in the Champions League.
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That leaves one UCL berth up for grabs and Manchester United (69, 36 games) hold the cards needing one point with two games remaining. Liverpool (66, 37 games) are sitting in fifth place and are the only club who can overtake Man United, but it looks like they will be in the Europa League.
Brighton & Hove Albion (61, 36 games) are in sixth and with vastly superior goal difference to Aston Villa are effectively guaranteed to be in the Europa League next season.
That leaves one place in the Europa Conference League. Aston Villa (58, 37 games) have the place in their grasp and will be in Europe if they win at home to Brighton on the final day. Tottenham Hotspur (57, 37 games) will climb above Villa if they better their result, with Spurs away to relegation-threatened Leeds. Brentford (56, 37 games) must win at home to Manchester City on the final day, and would also need both Spurs and Villa to fail to win.
How can the Premier League ever have 10 teams in Europe?
The three European titleholders would need to finish outside the European places in the Premier League.
This will definitely be the case with West Ham this season, but with only Manchester City left in the Champions League, and no representative in the Europa League, there is no possibility of 10 teams anymore.
How does qualification work if a team wins a European trophy?
There are four overriding principles:
- The winners of a European competition have the automatic right to European football the following season.
- A team has the right to play in the highest-ranked competition they qualify for.
- One Premier League team cannot be adversely affected by another's success in Europe.
- A Premier League team cannot get a place because of another's success in Europe.
If a team wins the Champions League or the Europa League:
- They are guaranteed to play in the Champions League wherever they finish in the Premier League.
If a team wins the Europa Conference League:
- They will play in the Europa League unless they finish in the top four -- then they will play in the Champions League.
What will happen to Man United's Carabao Cup place?
Man United are now guaranteed to finish in the top six, which gives them a place in the Europa League at worst. That means the UECL place goes to seventh.
If Man United finish in the top four:
Champions League: Arsenal, Manchester City, Newcastle, Manchester United
Europa League: 5, 6
Europa Conference League: 7
If Man United finish fifth:
Champions League: Arsenal, Manchester City, Newcastle, 4
Europa League: Manchester United, 6
Europa Conference League: 7
So how does the FA Cup affect the European places?
Manchester City will play Manchester United in the final on June 3. (stream live on ESPN+, U.S. only).
The effect on the European places works along the same lines as Man United's Carabao Cup place: if the FA Cup winners qualify for Champions League or the Europa League via the league, the Europa League place for winning the FA Cup transfers to the league.
Both Manchester clubs will finish in the top six, so this is simple.
If Man City win the FA Cup:
Champions League: Arsenal, Manchester City, Newcastle, 4
Europa League: 5, Manchester United (subject to final place)
Europa Conference League: 7
If Man United win both cups, their place in the Europa Conference League definitely transfers to the league. They will then either take up the FA Cup winners' place in the Europa League or, if they finish in the top four, it will transfer to sixth place in the league.
If Man United win both cups and finish top four:
Champions League: Arsenal, Manchester City, Newcastle, Manchester United
Europa League: 5, 6
Europa Conference League: 7
If Man United win both cups and finish 5th:
Champions League: Arsenal, Manchester City, Newcastle, 4
Europa League: Manchester United, 5 or 6
Europa Conference League: 7
How does seventh qualify for Europe by league position?
This is only the case if Manchester United and the winners of the FA Cup finish in the top six of the Premier League. This is now certain.
Champions League: Arsenal, Manchester City, Newcastle, 4
Europa League: 5, 6
Europa Conference League: 7
The performance of clubs in Europe cannot increase the number of places allocated to final places in the Premier League table.
Can eighth in the Premier League qualify for Europe?
It is impossible for eighth to qualify by league position. This team must win a domestic cup competition or a European title to play in Europe the following season.
What if Man City win the Champions League?
Man City will play Real Madrid in the final of the Champions League on June 10. If City win it, this will have no effect on the Premier League as Man City will finish in the top four. There is no "drop down" of places to give a fifth Champions League spot.
The position in the group stage for the Champions League titleholders is left vacant. This isn't filled by giving another team a place, the qualifying rounds are rebalanced with clubs effectively receiving byes.
Ordinarily, the champions of the country ranked 11th in the UEFA coefficient table at the end of the 2021-22 season -- Serbia -- would go direct to the Champions League group stage, rather than having to qualify. However, Russia is ranked 10th and its clubs remain excluded from European competition. That means the Serbian champions are already guaranteed a place in the group stage.
So, if Man City win the Champions League, it will be the champions of the 12th-ranked country who are given a place in the group stage. This just so happens to be Ukraine.
What if West Ham win the Europa Conference League?
If West Ham win the final on May 31 they will earn a place in next season's Europa League.
As West Ham will not qualify for Europe domestically, England would have eight teams in Europe next season.
Champions League: Arsenal, Manchester City, Newcastle, 4
Europa League: 5, 6, West Ham
Europa Conference League: 7
What if more than one English team wins a European trophy?
In principle, each scenario remains as above, applied in the same way individually to each competition.
So if Man City win the UCL and also finish in the top four, the allocation to the Premier League is unaltered.
As West Ham cannot qualify domestically, winning the Europa Conference League will add an eighth place -- for the Hammers as titleholders -- regardless of how any other team may perform.
Can fourth place miss out on the Champions League?
It would only be possible if the winners of the Champions League and the winners of the Europa League both finished outside the Premier League's top four.
If that were to happen, fourth place would play in the Europa League as there's a maximum of five teams from one country in the Champions League.
In that situation, as an example:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, Champions League winners, Europa League winners
Europa League: 4, FA Cup winners
Europa Conference League: 6
As the Premier League no longer has a team in the Europa League, it cannot happen.