Week 2 of the NFL season is always one of the best betting weeks of the season.
You get the opportunity to take advantage of the public’s overreaction to Week 1. And this works both ways. Many teams that win in in Week 1 will be vulnerable in Week 2. And teams that lost in Week 1 will be desperately motivated to even their record in Week 2.
There’s a huge difference between being 1-1 and 0-2 in terms of playoff prospects. Since 1990, 42% of teams that started 1-1 (193 of 460) made the playoffs. Only 11.3% (30 of 265) that went 0-2 made the playoffs.
Another trend to consider: No team that’s started 0-2 has made the playoffs the past two seasons.
So I look for good teams that played poorly, had bad luck or whatever reason lost their opening week game and bet them to bounce back in Week 2. They don’t always come through, but the percentages are in your favor.
Fortunately, there are a handful of games this Sunday that fit into this scenario.
The matchup I like best is in the NFC West, where the Seahawks visit the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. Here, we have a perfect betting scenario: A good team (49ers) that opened the season with an ugly loss in Chicago versus a bad team (Seahawks) that won an emotional home game against one of its former star players (Russell Wilson).
This is the perfect storm from a betting angle, and Vegas oddsmakers seem to know it because they have set the line at 49ers -8½.
Regardless, I love the 49ers. Throw that 19-10 opening loss to the Bears out the window. The game was played in a swamp. The area was actually under a flash flood warning during the second half. I’m willing to wager that it was a total aberration.
The 8½-point spread is a big number, especially for a division game. The Seahawks have won four consecutive games against the 49ers and five of the last six overall, so there’s reason to like Seattle.
But Wilson is in Denver now, and career journeyman Geno Smith has taken the reins of the offense. I know Smith out-dueled Wilson last week, but those were extreme circumstances, and I’ll be shocked if he can duplicate that effort against what should be a salty 49ers defense this week.
What’s more, the Seahawks and their fan base had been pointing to the Broncos game all offseason, since the day Wilson was dealt to Denver. The 12th Man was in full effect on Monday night. It will be difficult for Seattle to reach the same level of intensity and enthusiasm this week in Santa Clara.
Reality hits for Smith and the Seahawks. This feels like a comfortable 49ers win.
A couple other matchups fall under this same umbrella, including the Packers-Bears. For almost the exact same reasons that I like the 49ers, I like the Packers -9½.
Other similar matchups of teams that lost in Week 1 vs. teams that won: Lions +1½ vs. Commanders; Jets +6½ at Browns; Panthers +1½ at Giants; and Patriots -2 at Steelers.
Why not put a small parlay or round-robin bet on all the aforementioned Week 1 losers to bounce back in Week 2? You’ll be glad you did.