With the regular season nearly complete, we have seen enough from each player to evaluate them and their upcoming free-agency situation. We decided to look at some of the best upcoming free agents and check their stock, see what their next contract could look like, and weigh their odds of re-signing with their current team.
Below we evaluate one of the most polarizing upcoming free agents, Kyrie Irving. After a premature ending to his tenure in Brooklyn, he looked to make the most of his fresh start in Dallas and secure a long-term lucrative contract. Despite the disappointing end to the Mavericks’ season, both sides seem destined to extend their partnership.
Free agent stock
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Irving’s stock remains mostly high despite being a distressed asset after the Nets moved him for as much as they did. On the surface, it doesn’t seem that the Mavericks traded that much for a current All-Star and one of the best offensive guards in the league. But moving two important starters, including an All-Defensive caliber player in Dorian Finney-Smith, was a lot for them to give up given how weak the rest of their rotation is.
When looking at Irving, it’s hard to gauge exactly what parts of his offense are declining. The 12-year veteran is still scoring at a high level and his efficiency remained consistent for most of his prime. His impact metrics aren’t as high as the peaks of his best days in Cleveland and Boston, but he still ranks high today. The most glaring hole we can point at is his unavailability over the past four seasons. Whether through injuries or various non-injury-related reasons, Irving’s missed time has hurt Brooklyn the most.
So far, Irving’s time in Dallas has been mixed. He’s proven to be malleable with his ability to play well next to every star he’s been paired with. His partnership with Luka Doncic looks good and they have the chance to sustain one of the league’s best offenses. To be fair, Dallas’ struggles have little to do with Irving and more to do with the lack of defensive talent around him and Doncic. The Mavericks will have a critical offseason ahead of them in terms of putting together a strong roster and re-signing Irving.
Chances of re-signing
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With Irving, nothing is really guaranteed. But as far as re-signing with the Mavericks this offseason, it’s hard to see this summer going any other way for either side. He requested a trade because of a huge chasm in extension negotiations with the Nets. They reportedly didn’t want to give him a long-term deal without guarantee stipulations, which Irving took offense to. By successfully leveraging a trade to the Mavericks, he already guaranteed himself more money on his next deal.
Dallas cannot afford to let Irving go and won’t be able to replace him in free agency. There’s a pathway for them to generate as much as $21 million in cap space if he walks, but that won’t be enough to sign a player of his caliber. They are also limited going forward in ways to improve their roster after trading two of their best rotation players and a first-round pick for him. Now that the roster is left with several role players on bad contracts, severely limiting their trade flexibility, they may have given Irving a lot of leverage ahead of negotiations this offseason.
Irving will be eligible to re-sign with the Mavericks for a maximum of five years, $272 million. He is currently eligible to extend through June 30, 2023 for up to two years, $78.6 million, but he seems likely to seek a longer deal in free agency. It seems unlikely he will get a full five-year maximum deal considering there aren’t many teams with cap space that seem like a good fit for him.
Perhaps a maximum salaried contract for three years could be the middle ground. Such a deal would start him at $46.9 million next season and have him earning $54.4 million in 2025-26. It would also leave open the possibility to extend in 2025 if things are going well in Dallas.
Other candidates outside of his current team
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After Irving was traded to Dallas, it was reported that the Lakers, Suns, and Clippers all made serious offers for him. None of those teams are projected to have cap space and are likely to be taxpayers next season. This means that these teams are unlikely to have the flexibility to acquire Irving in a sign-and-trade since it would be challenging for them to field a roster under the hard cap afterward. The only way these teams could acquire Irving next season would be via a midseason trade.
Irving’s maximum with other teams is for four years, projected at $201.7 million, which would also start at $46.9 million. The Lakers could still generate a little north of $30 million in cap space this summer, but that is well below Irving’s maximum salary, and would require them to gut their roster to generate that space. According to The Athletic’s Jovan Buha, the Lakers are unlikely to pursue Irving since it would leave the rest of their roster dry.
The other cap space teams, which include Charlotte, Detroit, Houston, Indiana, Oklahoma City, Orlando, San Antonio, and Utah, could all offer Irving a lucrative deal. However, most of those teams aren’t logical fits for him since he doesn’t align with their timelines. Also, most of those teams are set at point guard.
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