The NBA Finals wrapped up last night, and the Stanley Cup Finals could wrap up as soon as this evening. With a rapidly diminishing slate of betting options to choose from, the MLB will soon become our primary daily target. Let’s dive into the top MLB player prop picks in OddsShopper’s market-based model for the games you can watch on national television today, including one for Anthony Rizzo.
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Anthony Rizzo, David Peralta
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets | 7:10 p.m. ET on TBS
The Yankees and Mets will do battle in a three-game, midweek series at Citi Field. I have some more thoughts on this game that you can read about here, but we’re turning to first baseman Anthony Rizzo for our top MLB player prop to watch in this game.
Rizzo and the Bronx Bombers will take on RHP Max Scherzer (5-2), whose 3.71 ERA and 3.19 xERA suggest the veteran ace hasn’t fallen off one bit. Scherzer’s ERA drops to an elite 0.50 when he pitches at Citi Field, which is where he’ll pitch tonight.
Left-handed hitters like Rizzo have accounted for just seven RBIs against Scherzer this season. They own an OPS of .636 across 105 at-bats. OddsShopper’s market-based model gives Rizzo a 72% chance of recording less than one RBI, but we can buy him to go without an RBI at -250 (71%) at DraftKings.
While we don’t have a life-changing amount of edge for this game, if you’re yet to sign up at DraftKings, you can access some excellent promotional offers. New users can get $200 in bonus bets instantly after placing a $5 wager!
Best MLB Player Prop: Anthony Rizzo Under 0.5 RBIs -250 at DraftKings
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox | 10:10 p.m. ET on ESPN+
The Dodgers and White Sox will do battle on the late slate. Our MLB expert, Justin Martin, has betting action on another play for this evening’s late game. Further, the highest-value MLB bet in OddsShopper’s market-based model comes from this one.
Outfielder and left-handed batter David Peralta stands out as a sharp target. Peralta will take on RHP Lance Lynn (4-6), whose 6.72 ERA and 5.39 xERA make him an appealing starter to fade. Lynn has allowed 51 hits and a 1.115 OPS to left-handed batters this year.
Peralta has owned hurlers like Lynn this year. In 149 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, Peralta owns 35 hits and a batting average of .248. He may not be the world’s greatest slugger, but he gets the job done more than enough to target him on tonight’s slate.
Peralta sits at odds of -175 (63.6%) at FanDuel Sportsbook to record a hit. However, our market-based model thinks a fair price for this prop is -199 (66.5%), so we’re getting a fair amount of edge here. Let’s take advantage of the value before it disappears from the board!
Best MLB Player Prop: David Peralta To Record a Hit -175 at FanDuel