How real is Paul Reed’s perimeter shooting surge?

Paul Reed’s fourth year in the NBA has had his fair share of ups and downs — both of which are magnified by Joel Embiid’s lengthy absence. However, the additional reps may have assisted Reed’s offensive improvement, particularly with his shooting.

Reed’s three-point shooting has taken off since the 2024 All-Star break, hitting 63.6 percent of his threes while averaging 1.1 attempts per contest. This recent progression has boosted his on-season three-point average to 40.9 percent (18-44) on the year.

While the volume is certainly low, this shooting progression is what the Sixers have been waiting for all year long. At the beginning of the year, head coach Nick Nurse stated that Reed would have the green light to attempt perimeter shots this season, something that Reed eventually shied away from mid-year after going cold. Now, he’s not only attempting threes, he’s making them.

This late-season shooting surge might be shrugged off by some, but it could foreshadow what’s to come later this season and beyond if/when Embiid returns.

Heading into the year, Nurse openly stated that they’d look more into playing Reed alongside Embiid. This didn’t happen much, however, due to injuries and Reed’s perimeter shooting being non-existent for stretches early on in the year. We could see more of this partnership moving forward if Reed is able to consistently hit threes at a high enough clip.

Sixers fans know firsthand that prospects theoretically being able to hit shots can be a big “if”, but there is evidence to suggest that Reed’s shooting is here to stay.

Most will remember Reed spent the majority of his first two years in the G League with the Delaware Blue Coats. Not only did he put up gaudy stat lines, but his perimeter shooting was elite. Over the span of two years (24 games), Reed shot 43.6 percent from three while attempting nearly four threes per game.

Reed’s shooting progression dates back to his days at DePaul, most notably in his sophomore season when he shot over 40 percent from three. He took a step back in his junior year — 31 percent on nearly two attempts per game — later declaring for the NBA draft.

Fast forward to today, and Reed’s shooting seems to be finally translating at the NBA level. There’s a good chance it’ll come back down to earth, but Reed’s shot chart for the season shows that he’s been a decent perimeter shooter on low volume:

It would be pretty shocking if Reed shoots anywhere near 40 percent on higher volume, but keeping defenses honest is a huge key to expanding his playing time on a healthy roster. Time will tell just how real Reed’s shooting stroke is at the NBA level, but if past evidence suggests anything, we very well might be seeing more Paul Reed in the not-so-distant future with Joel Embiid.