Game Preview #55: New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals

The Matchup: New Jersey Devils (28-22-4) at Washington Capitals (24-21-8)

The Time: 7:00pm ET

The Broadcast: MSGSN2, MNMT

Last Devils Game

It was a big one! On Saturday night, the Devils battled the Philadelphia Flyers in the 2024 Stadium Series at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford. New Jersey defended their home turf (literally?) with a critical 6-3 win over Philadelphia. The Nicos led the way, with Hischier scoring twice and adding an assist, and Daws making a whopping 45 saves on 48 shots.

Last Capitals Game

Washington was also in action on Saturday, skating away with a 4-3 win over the Montreal Canadiens.

Last Devils-Capitals Game

The Devils previous game against the Capitals was a good one: A 6-3 victory over Washington on January 3rd. Hischier, Dawson Mercer, and the since-departed Michael McLeod each scored twice in that contest, while Daws got the start and made 23 saves on 26 shots.

Oh Captain, My Captain

After notching three points on Saturday at MetLife, Hischier is now up to 12 points in his last eight games, including four goals in the last three contests. In the most important stretch of the season, the captain is leading by example. Even beyond the point totals, his line with Jesper Bratt and Ondrej Palat are crushing opponents in the run of play. According to Natural Stat Trick, the trio put up a combined 5-on-5 Expected Goals For% of 84.36% in 11:07 TOI on Saturday against the Flyers.

The Hischier-Bratt-Palat line has been phenomenal all season long as a matter of fact. Again per NST, that unit has played together for 226:06 minutes at 5-on-5. Here are their stats in that time:

Corsi For%: 61.01%

Scoring Chances For%: 63.39%

High Danger Corsi For%: 64.04%

Expected Goals For%: 62.52%

These are utterly dominant numbers, which is even more impressive considering the Hischier line is usually tasked with shutting down the opposition’s top line on a nightly basis. I don’t have any reason to believe this unit will all of a sudden start getting caved in, so against a Capitals team lacking in high-end talent, I expect another big game from Hischier and his line.

Problem Solved?

Nico Daws has been a revelation in net for New Jersey in recent games. We all know how pitifully bad Devils goaltenders have been this season, which makes Daws’ play as of late feel like finding an oasis in a barren desert. Since the Devils returned from the All-Star break, Daws has started four games. Here are his results in those contests:

2/12 vs. Seattle Kraken: 27 saves on 28 shots (.964 sv%); Win

2/13 @ Nashville Predators: 30 saves on 32 shots (.938); Win

2/15 vs. Los Angeles Kings: 27 saves on 29 shots (.931); Loss

2/17 vs. Philadelphia Flyers: 45 saves on 48 shots (.938); Win

That’s a combined 129 saves on 137 shots, good for a staggering .942 sv%. I’m not naive enough to believe Daws will keep that blistering pace up for the rest of the season, but given how poised he’s looked, how solid his rebound control has been, and how great he looks on high-danger chances against, I think it’s reasonable to believe Daws could provide at the very least league average goaltending the rest of the way.

Does this mean the Devils have “solved” their goaltending issues? It’s impossible to say of course, but I lean toward no for the simple reason that we’ve seen this song and dance before. Mackenzie Blackwood was the future of the position until he wasn’t. Vitek Vanecek was the future of the position until he wasn’t. Akira Schmid was the future of the position until he wasn’t. The book is still open to varying degrees on Vanecek and Schmid, but I think it’s safe to say that they are more question than they are answer at this point.

So long story short, I’ll believe it when I see it with Daws. I would certainly not be disappointed if general manager Tom Fitzgerald continued to shop around for a goaltender. But regardless of whether Daws is the future or not, in the present, the young man has provided desperately needed production at a critical point in the season. He has played four games in a row now, but given how head coach Lindy Ruff loves to ride the hot hand in net, look for Daws to get the start tonight as well.

“Imminent”

Jonas Siegenthaler has not played since January 6th when he broke his foot against the Vancouver Canucks. It’s been about a month and a half since then, and it looks like we will finally see Siegenthaler return to the lineup tonight:

Prior to his injury, Siegenthaler was having a bit of a down season. He was a little more leaky than we’re accustomed to seeing him on the defensive end, and his offense was not picking up the slack to replace the lost defensive value. That being said, Siegenthaler is clearly one of New Jersey’s six best blueliners, and his return would provide yet another boost to this team.

I’ll be curious to see who swaps out of the lineup now that Siegenthaler is ready to return. You have to think John Marino, Luke Hughes, and Simon Nemec are locks to stay in. I would also think Colin Miller is a strong bet to remain in the lineup, though not quite on the level of the first three. That would leave Brendan Smith and Kevin Bahl, and I could see those two holding down a timeshare of the last spot on the blueline moving forward. I will also be curious to see how Siegenthaler performs in the revamped system Ruff implemented a couple weeks ago. Given his struggles earlier in the campaign, I am cautiously optimistic that Siegenthaler will take to the new system well.

How The Mighty Have Fallen

The Washington Capitals have spent a long, long time contending in the Eastern Conference. They ran the Metropolitan Division for a long time, and even before the divisional realignment that occurred beginning in 2013-14, the Capitals were among the elite teams in the league. They’ve won division titles, Presidents Trophies, and a Stanley Cup in 2017-18.

But we may finally be seeing the end of the good times that started with Alexander Ovechkin’s arrival in the nation’s capital. Last season, Washington failed to qualify for the postseason for the first time since 2013-14, and they’re on pace to make it two misses in a row. The Capitals currently sit sixth in the Metro, and fifth in the Wild Card standings. At 56 points through 53 games, Washington is looking up at the Islanders and Devils among teams outside of playoff spots.

The Caps held down a playoff spot for a surprisingly long time earlier in the campaign, but an extended slump that began on December 23rd have really done them in. They’ve played 23 games since that date, and have put together a record of 7-12-4 in that time. Seven wins and 16 losses is certainly a recipe for a fall down the standings.

Power Outage

If you want a specific reason for Washington’s struggles this season, set your sights on the offense. The Capitals, once an offensive juggernaut year in and year out, are 30th in the league with 128 goals scored.

The conversation of where the goals have disappeared to has to start with Ovechkin. The man who may very well end his career with more goals than anyone in NHL history has been struggling mightily this season, with only 14 goals in 50 games. Age appears to finally be catching up to Ovechkin, who is on pace for his lowest goal total since...well, ever. Excluding the Covid-shortened 2021 campaign, Ovechkin has never scored fewer than 30 goals in a season. He’s on pace to fall well short of that mark, as his 0.28 goals per game rate is the lowest of his entire career.

For as badly as Ovechkin has struggled though, he still leads the team with 38 points. That should give you an indication of just how dire the situation with Washington’s offense is. Even beyond the raw numbers, according to Natural Stat Trick, the Capitals just aren’t controlling possession in any meaningful way:

CF%: 46.94% (25th in the league)

SCF%: 47.41% (25th)

HDCF%: 47.71% (25th)

xGF%: 46.40% (27th)

This is a reeling Capitals team with a very bad offense. New Jersey has an opportunity to capitalize (sorry) on a flailing division rival, and not only help their own playoff cause, but put another nail in the coffin of their Metro nemesis.

The Great Equalizer

So how have the Capitals stayed somewhat in the playoff picture despite a lack of high-end talent and a nonexistent offense? Look no further than Charlie Lindgren. The 30-year-old is having the best season of his career, with a record of 10-8-4 to go along with a Save Percentage of .913%. Natural Stat Trick has Lindgren at 5.62 Goals Saved Above Expected, good for 14th in the NHL. His tandem mate, Darcy Kuemper, got the start in Washington’s last game, so expect Lindgren to get the call tonight.

If there’s one thing the Devils should worry about in tonight’s contest, it’s Lindgren. He’s proven capable of stealing games this season, so despite any territorial advantage New Jersey might have this evening, it might not mean anything if Lindgren stands on his head.

Your Take

What will you be watching for tonight? If Siegenthaler does in fact draw back in, who do you think he replaces? And who do you think he will pair up with? What are you expecting out of the Capitals? As always, thanks for reading!