If you'd told the Seattle Mariners and their partisans coming into the 2024 season that the reigning-champion Texas Rangers would be on pace for 88 losses with September looming and that the Houston Astros – baseball's modern dynasty – would start the year 12-24, assumptions of champagne likely would've followed.
Matters, though, haven't unfolded in line with those expectations. Going into Monday's slate of contests, the Mariners are in second place in the American League West and four games behind the surging Astros. As well, they're 5 1/2 games out of the third and final wild-card spot in the AL and behind two teams – the Kansas City Royals and Boston Red Sox – in that particular chase. Summing up those current straits, SportsLine at present gives the Mariners just a 20.9% chance of making the postseason. Those are hardly insurmountable odds, but the strong likelihood is that Seattle will be at home in October for a second straight year.
It didn't always look this way. As recently as June 18, the M's were a season-best 13 games over .500. The Mariners on that same day were in first place by a robust margin of 10 games. Overall this season, they've spent 107 days in first place. For more than a week, though, they've been chasing the leveled-up Astros, and the deficit has been growing of late. Those likely assumptions noted above have turned into fears that Seattle will miss the postseason for a second straight year. As well, the team is on pace for its lowest full-season winning percentage since 2019.
So what's happened to those once-bright fortunes in Seattle? Their current predicament, in broad terms, is the result of three factors.
The Astros have found their level
As noted above, the Astros stumbled badly to start the year, and they were a season-worst 12 games below .500 on May 8. Since then, however, they've played more like the club that's made it at least as far as the ALCS for seven straight years. Since May 9, the day after that aforementioned low point, the Astros have been back in dominance mode. Over that span, they've gone 55-32, which comes to a winning percentage of .632. That's the best mark in MLB over that span. The Arizona Diamondbacks have the second-best mark since May 9, at .591. As well, the Astros have backed up the rise up the standings with a league-best run differential of plus-102. The second-best run differential since May 9 belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers at plus-87.
What makes all this more impressive is that the Astros while winning at that .632 clip have coped with significant injuries. The rotation has been banged up for some time, and what once looked like enviable depth has become a bit of a scramble. The tandem emergence of Ronel Blanco and Hunter Brown have helped greatly on that front, as has the deadline addition of veteran lefty Yusei Kikuchi. As well, star outfielder Kyle Tucker, who was looking like an AL MVP candidate in the early weeks of the season, has been out since late May with a shin injury. Still and yet, the Astros have won and won regularly.
The Mariners' offense has struggled
Last season, the Seattle offense was hardly a strength, as it finished 12 in the majors in runs scored, 16th in OPS. This year, though, the bottom has fallen out. Right now, the M's rank 12th in runs scored, 14th in OPS, and 15th in wOBA (what's this?). However, in 2024 the Mariners have tumbled to 26th in runs scored, 28th in OPS, and 26th in wOBA. As great as Seattle's pitching has been, the lineup hasn't left them any room to breathe. It's just hard to fend off a team like Houston, pitiful start and all, when you can't score runs. The deadline pick-ups of Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner help matters somewhat but probably not enough to truly move the needle in the division.
Seattle's two best players in 2023 haven't been themselves in 2024
The royal we speak of young superstar center fielder Julio Rodríguez and shortstop J.P. Crawford. Last season, those two paced the Mariners in WAR, but this season ineffectiveness and injuries have whittled away at their value. Rodríguez has seen his OPS+ – or his park-adjusted OPS expressed as a percentage of the league-average figure of 100 – fall from 130 last season to 101 in 2024. Crawford, meantime, had a career-best OPS+ of 133 in 2023. In 2024, that figure is down to 89. On the injury front, Rodríguez just recently returned from an ankle injury that cost him almost three weeks. Crawford, meantime, remains on the injured list with fractured finger, and earlier in the season he was out almost a month with an oblique strain.
Last season, these two core contributors teamed up for a WAR of 10.4. That figure in 2024 is down to 3.6. Those lost wins are being keenly felt in the standings right now.
Looking forward, it's a mixed bag that probably doesn't favor Seattle's chances for a comeback in the AL West. They play a significantly easier schedule than Houston does the rest of the way, and they still have one head-to-head series remaining (Sept. 23-25 in Houston). However, the Astros will likely get future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander (neck) back from the IL on Wednesday, and that would be his first start since way back yonder on June 9. As for Tucker, it's not certain he'll be back this season, but he recently progressed to hitting on the field, which raises hopes that he will indeed work his way back into the heart of the Houston order at some point in 2024. Even outside of the prospect of better health, though, the Astros have, to repeat, been in juggernaut mode for more than three months, and there's no reason to think that stops being the case. That, in turn, has put Seattle in a most unenviable position as the stretch drive looms.