Needing a win to ensure they remain above the Eastern Conference playoff line, Toronto host the New York Red Bulls at BMO Field on Wednesday in the 32nd match of the MLS campaign for the Canadians.
A 1-1 draw versus the Chicago Fire this past weekend has the Reds in a three-way tie for that final playoff position in the East, while the Red Bulls officially booked a place in the post-season despite being thumped 5-1 by New York City FC on Saturday.
Match preview
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With two matches remaining in their regular season campaign, the Reds are still in control of their playoff destiny, but they are cutting it awfully close.
Their draw with Chicago extended their winless run to four matches across all competitions, putting them above the playoff line only because they boast two more wins (11) than the Philadelphia Union and CF Montreal, whom they are tied with on points (37).
John Herdman's men play their remaining two league contests at BMO Field, where they have lost two of their last three regular-season affairs, including a 2-0 defeat in their previous home game against the Columbus Crew.
TFC have failed to win six domestic contests this season when scoring the opening goal, dropping 16 points as a result.
Winning their final two MLS contests would not only ensure they make the playoffs for the first time since 2020, but it would also give them 13 victories in the regular season, equalling their mark from 2020.
They have yet to claim a single point against a New York-based club in MLS this year, losing all three of those encounters, though they came away with a 5-4 shootout victory against the Red Bulls at the Leagues Cup this past summer.
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On Saturday, the Red Bulls were humbled by their arch-rivals in what has to be their lowest point of the season under Sandro Schwarz.
Even so, they are back in the post-season yet again and will try on Wednesday to end a six-match winless run in MLS play.
That is one fewer than their longest domestic winless run from a year ago, dropping them down to sixth in the conference, two points below Orlando City for fourth.
The Red Bulls have only claimed three triumphs away from home in MLS this season, the second-fewest in the Eastern Conference.
Two of their remaining three fixtures will be away from home, where they have failed to win twice in 2024 when netting the opening goal.
New York are unbeaten in their last 10 meetings with Toronto in this competition, failing to concede in four successive league matches against them.
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Team News
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Against Chicago, the Reds did not have Derrick Etienne available due to a knock, Charlie Sharp was sidelined with a lower leg issue, while Henry Wingo and Nicksoen Gomis sat out because of groin strains.
Deybi Flores missed their weekend fixture due to yellow card accumulation but is eligible to return on Wednesday, while Shane O'Neill came on as a substitute after previously missing some time with a knock.
Prince Owusu converted a penalty in first-half stoppage time versus the Fire, drawing even with Federico Bernardeschi for the team lead in goals with eight.
On Saturday, the Red Bulls were missing Sean Nealis and Wikelman Carmona with thigh issues, while Kyle Duncan and Roald Mitchell were sidelined because of knee injuries.
Emil Forsberg returned from a foot injury, with the Swede coming on for Dennis Gjengaar in their lopsided defeat this past weekend.
Dante Vanzeir scored for a second match running, though his fourth of the MLS season was not nearly enough against the Boys in Blue.
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Rosted, Long, Petretta; Spicer, Coello, Longstaff, Laryea; Bernardeschi, Osorio; Owusu
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Coronel; D. Nealis, Reyes, Eile, Tolkin; Gjengaar, Forsberg, Edelman, Harper; Vanzeir, Morgan
We say: Toronto 2-1 New York Red Bulls
With only two matches remaining, Toronto have to pull out all the stops, and we expect their urgency will propel them to a victory against a team that have played rather conservatively for weeks.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.