Here's a fun question casual baseball fans may not be able to answer: Which team currently has the fourth-best record in the American League? The Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, and New York Yankees have the league's three best records. That's the easy part.
But the fourth-best record? Survey 100 casual MLB fans Family Feud style and I reckon you'd get a lot of Los Angeles Angels and Minnesota Twins answers. The Twins were in the postseason last year and the Angels have been a hot topic all season, thanks largely to Shohei Ohtani (and Mike Trout). Here's the answer:
- Boston Red Sox: 37-17
- New York Yankees: 33-17 (2 GB)
- Houston Astros: 35-20 (2 1/2 GB)
- Seattle Mariners: 33-20 (3 1/2 GB)
- Los Angeles Angels: 29-25 (8 GB)
Yep, the Mariners currently own the fourth-best record in the AL, and geez, it's not even close. They're five games up on the fifth place Angels in the loss column. The Mariners are quite a bit closer to the Red Sox, Yankees, and Astros than they are the other 11 teams in the so-called Junior Circuit.
Coincidentally enough, Seattle's climb up the AL standings coincides with Robinson Cano's suspension. Cano was suspended 80 games under the league's performance-enhancing drug policy on May 15. The Mariners beat the Texas Rangers that night and they've won 10 of 13 games since. Their 10-3 record is the AL's best since Cano's suspension and tied with the Milwaukee Brewers for the best record in baseball.
Of course, the Mariners are not actually better off without Cano. Their second basemen have hit .214/.261/.262 during the 10-3 stretch and that stinks. And, of course, it must be noted the Mariners did not actually lose Cano on May 15. He suffered a broken bone in his hand when he was hit by a pitch two days earlier. The injury was going to sideline Cano several weeks anyway. The suspension just added insult to injury.
This isn't about Cano, however. It's about the rest of the Mariners. It's about Guillermo Heredia hitting .294/.425/.435 with more walks (17) than strikeouts (16) while playing plus center field defense during his breakout season. It's about Marco Gonzales finally settling in as a big leaguer and allowing two runs (both unearned) in his last three starts and 19 1/3 innings. It's about the front office adding Denard Span and Alex Colome to beef up the roster
And, it's about the Mariners potentially ending the longest current postseason drought not just in baseball, but in North American sports. They haven't been to the postseason since 2001, Ichiro Suzuki's rookie season. Check out their postseason odds, via SportsLine:
- Opening Day: 24.6 percent
- May 15 (before Cano suspension): 21.5 percent
- May 15 (after Cano suspension): 18.0 percent
- May 29: 61.6 percent
Are the Mariners going to pass the Astros and win the AL West? I mean, I know they're tied in the loss column right now, but almost certainly not. The Astros are obnoxiously good and clearly the best team in that division -- if not all of baseball -- on paper. Never say never. The Mariners winning the division is not impossible. It just looks like it'll be very, very difficult. A Wild Card berth is there for the taking.
Truth be told, there are reasons to be skeptical about the Mariners and they way they've built their 33-20 record. For starters, eight wins during this 10-3 stretch were by one run. They're 16-8 in one-run games overall with the most one-run wins in baseball. One-run wins counts just as much as 10-run wins, but they do come with smaller margin of error. The Mariners have a plus-13 run differential, which suggests their record should be more like 28-25 rather than 33-20.
It's not unheard of for a team to ride an otherworldly record in one-run games to the postseason -- the 2012 Baltimore Orioles went 29-9 on one-run games en route to grabbing a Wild Card spot -- but it's not the most sustainable strategy. Something will have to give at some point, and with the Mariners, there are several spots on the roster they'll need more from going forward:
- Felix Hernandez has a 5.58 ERA (73 ERA+) in 11 starts and 61 1/3 innings.
- Mike Leake has a 4.93 ERA (82 ERA+) in 11 stats and 65 2/3 innings.
- Nelson Cruz is hitting .220/.304/.420 (100 OPS+) with eight homers.
- Kyle Seager is hitting .226/.286/.423 (95 OPS+) with nine homers.
Those are four core players the Mariners will need to start playing better to stay in the postseason race, especially with Cano out until August 14. History suggests Wade LeBlanc will not continue to pitch to a 1.71 ERA as a starter, and manager Scott Servais can't continue to ask Edwin Diaz to pitch in 53 percent of the team's games. (He's made 28 appearances in 53 games so far.) It'll ruin the kid's arm. Those guys need support.
The following two statements are true:
- The Mariners have played well since Cano's suspension and they have the fourth best record in the AL.
- The Mariners have several spots on the roster that need to be upgraded, either through trades or (preferably) by getting the players currently on the roster to perform better.
The Span and Colome additions will help -- Colome picked up a save over the weekend to give Diaz a breather -- and the Mariners have banked a lot of wins lately, improving their postseason odds. There is still two-thirds of the season to play though, and for the Mariners to stay in the race, they'll need guys like Felix and Cruz and Seager and Leake to perform better than they have.
The Mariners are quite good. They're also a team with lots of room for improvement.