If you had just four words to sum up his season in these situations, you’d simply say “they pitched to him.”
Tying run on third, go-ahead run on second, first base open with one out in the bottom of the ninth … and the Blue Jays decide to dance with the $210 million man.
Mariners center fielder Julio Rodriguez had established himself as a bona fide terror at this time last season — slugging .483 two and a half months after an April in which he slugged .260. That J-Rod you walk without thinking twice in order to set up a double-play ball and create a force out at every base.
But the 2023 version of Rodriguez is much different — and not just because of a .245/.313/.403 slash line that epitomizes his sophomore slump. It’s because in clutch moments, Julio has been horrendous.
Baseball-reference.com keeps numbers for “late and close” situations, which means the game is in the seventh inning or later, and the batting team is either up by a run, tied, or has the potential tying run on base, at bat or on deck. Well, in 94 plate appearances last season, Rodriguez slashed a commendable .289/.372/.518 in those situations while posting an OPS of .890. In 66 late-and-close plate appearances this season, he is slashing .164/.303/.273 with an OPS of .576. For perspective, the leaguewide late-and-close batting average this year is .233, and the leaguewide OPS is .689.
How about ninth-inning stats? In 2022, Rodriguez slashed a whopping .357/.386/.691 in his 44 ninth-inning plate appearances. And he slashed .667/.800/.667 over his five extra-inning PAs.
This season? He’s at .160/.344/.320 over 25 ninth-inning PAs and .167/.444/.167 in extras.
These juxtapositions are as staggering as they are stark. And they help explain why Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano attacked Julio in the ninth inning of Toronto’s 4-3 win Sunday instead of giving him first base.
The at-bat went as the above numbers would suggest. Rodriguez took the first pitch for a ball, then looked at a strike before fouling off a slider to fall behind 1-2 in the count. Another ball ensued, a foul ball followed, then Julio struck out by flailing at a slider in the dirt. Eugenio Suarez flew out to left on the Mariners’ next at-bat, allowing the Blue Jays to avoid a sweep and stay 4.5 games ahead of the Mariners in the American League wild-card race.
Think about what the mood would have been like in the clubhouse had Rodriguez delivered the first walkoff hit of his career. Or if the Mariners won it in extras after J-Rod tied the score with a sacrifice fly.
A sweep of Toronto likely would have been considered the turning point if the M’s (50-49) went on to make the playoffs this season. Now they sit just one game above .500 with 13 straight games against teams with winning records coming up — 10 of which are on the road.
There are myriad factors that have contributed to the Mariners’ mediocrity this year — a subpar offense, injuries and a close-game regression to the mean to name a few. But their most talented player — who signed a deal last season guaranteeing him at least $210 million — being absent in the clutch has contributed.
This doesn’t mean Rodriguez hasn’t helped the Mariners this year. His 2.7 WAR via FanGraphs.com suggests he is tied with pitcher George Kirby for team MVP. He has been a maestro for most the year in center, has stolen 23 bases on 28 attempts, and has 14 home runs.
But he hasn’t been a clutch batter in clutch matters. What gives?
“I think at times, it’s not just Julio but a lot of young players, you want to be the guy — he wants so much for our team to move forward. He’s grinding. He’s trying. Sometimes he tries a little too hard in those spots,” Mariners manager Scott Servais said.
Sunday’s postgame wasn’t really the time to do a deep dive with Julio on his late, high-leverage at-bats this season. He did describe his showdown with Romano, though, saying his goal was to “just go get a good pitch to drive,” and that Romano “made really good pitches. I took some close pitches. But at the end of the day, he came out on top today.”
Don’t be shocked if Rodriguez goes down as one of the most accomplished players in Mariners history. And don’t be surprised if he provides this fan base with a collection of ninth-inning heroics that posterity relives for decades to come. But those heroics have been conspicuously missing this year.
Rodriguez regularly displays his talent when the Mariners want him to. Time to start doing so when they need him to.