LAS VEGAS — If the Islanders were a different kind of team, being run in a different kind of way, here’s the question everybody would be asking as the NHL descends on Las Vegas for the draft: Who will trade for Brock Nelson?
Here are the facts laid bare: The Islanders finished last season 39-27-16 and lost in the first round for the second straight season.
It’s been three seasons since they won a playoff round.
Nelson, entering the last year of his contract, will be 33 in October and would have real trade value as a perennial 30-goal scorer.
For most front offices around the league, this would be cut and dried.
The Islanders’ is not most front offices.
That is not to completely rule out a move, mostly because you can never do such a thing when Lou Lamoriello is the one calling the shots.
But it is to note that, as the league’s busy season swings open, Nelson’s name is not one getting tossed around with the likes of Mitch Marner, Martin Necas and Nikolaj Ehlers as players whose teams must make an imminent decision on their futures.
A decision on Nelson does not need to come between now and July 4 for the Islanders — indeed it would be a mild surprise if a trade or extension did happen over the next week — but whatever does or does not happen here will be instructive as to the degree of change that Lamoriello will chart this summer after declaring nothing off the table.
Handing Nelson a contract extension at this stage of his career would signal that, although the Islanders might look different down the lineup next year, there is unlikely to be a seismic change here or, for that matter, any time soon.
If the Islanders wanted to break up this core and shake up their dressing room, there’s not an easier way to do it than trading a player on the wrong side of 30 on an expiring contract (though Nelson holds a 16-team no-trade clause).
However good Nelson has been — and he has been an excellent Islander for 11 seasons, with the best production of his career coming in the last three — there is no getting around that an extension, even short-term, would likely equate to pushing off major changes.
That’s not necessarily a good or bad thing — the Islanders can credibly argue that a full season of Patrick Roy and a bounce back from Ilya Sorokin, combined with smaller roster tweaks, can get them where they need to go — but if you’re looking for a sign of direction, this would be it.
Nelson, for his part, demurred on the question of signing early in the summer, but sounded like he wanted to stay an Islander on breakup day.
“This is all I’ve known. I love living here on the Island, my family loves it. Love this group,” he said. “I know things can’t always stay the same, but whatever happens, I haven’t really thought about extension, early extension or not.”
The path of least resistance, if the Islanders want to stay as competitive as possible for as long as possible, would be to delay.
Wait and see how the offseason plays out, wait and see how things look after Roy gets to run a training camp, wait and see if Sorokin turns it around.
If circumstances dictate a move is prudent, Nelson would be a premium asset at the trade deadline, but the Islanders would be hoping for otherwise.
There’s risk in waiting, too — potential injury, a potential slowdown in production, the obvious fact that there’s more value in trading for a yearlong rental than a half-season rental — but the Islanders aren’t trying to signal to fans that they should write this season off before it starts.
Depending on the return, trading Nelson would run that risk, and the hierarchy made clear how much it values No. 29 by putting an ‘A’ on his sweater last year.
If the Islanders were a different team under different circumstances, this would be a different conversation.
But they aren’t and this isn’t.